Raleigh, N.C. – Unsurprisingly, the picture has little changed since December, when PPP last took a look at the early 2012 presidential race in the crucial swing state of Florida. President Obama beat John McCain there by three points in 2008, and he now has similar leads over two possible GOP nominees, and tops the others by almost identical margins as three months ago.
Mitt Romney is the only likely entrant into the Republican fracas to equal or exceed McCain’s performance. He trails 46-44, exactly the same as December’s result. The state’s former Governor Jeb Bush also does well, lagging 48-45, but he has so far denied any interest in seeking his father’s and brother’s old office. Rudy Giuliani, who staked his entire candidacy on the state’s primary three years ago, performs next best, down 48-42. Giuliani has flirted with another bid, but neither he nor Bush were tested in December. Mike Huckabee, who now makes his home in the Sunshine State, is behind Obama 50-43, just a hair worse than December’s 49-44 deficit. Neighboring Georgia’s Newt Gingrich pulls the same 42% as in the previous poll, but Obama has inched up from 47% to 50% against him. And, as ever, Sarah Palin brings up the rear, trailing 52-39; she earned 38% in December.
President Obama’s overall approval rating is back above water, with 48% approving and 47% disapproving, versus December’s 45-49 spread. He has improved dramatically with Democrats, jumping from a relateively weak 69% approval from his own party to 81% now, a trend seen in other states as time has passed since the lame duck session of Congress. He is also now earning 80-86% of their votes against each of the Republicans, versus only 73-77% in December. But he has declined with independents, who approved by a huge 59-35 margin then and only barely 41-39 now. And while he won their vote by margins of 24 to 41 points previously, he now does by only two to 18 points. So declines with independents have balanced out his gains with Democrats. Luckily for him, Democrats are almost twice as numerous.
“It looks like Florida will as ever continue to be one of the closest states in the country next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The only way it becomes lopsided is if the GOP nominates a really weak candidate.”
PPP surveyed 500 Florida voters from March 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Rudy Giuliani, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
