Polls

Obama on pace to win Florida again

| Tom Jensen

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SUMMARY OF RESULTS

President_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – After going Republican in 11 of the last 14 presidential elections, Florida broke for Barack Obama as part of his overwhelming victory over John McCain two years ago, but only by two and a half points. But if the 2012 election were held today, even only a month and a half after the GOP’s resounding successes at the polls, Obama would exceed that margin against all but one of the five candidates tested against him, including one of those successful, up-and-coming 2010 candidates.

A Mitt Romney nomination would make the race in the Sunshine State neck-and-neck, with Obama prevailing only 46-44, but the president would beat the other four by at least five points: Mike Huckabee, 49-44; Newt Gingrich, 47-42; and Sarah Palin by a whopping 52-38. He would also lead a hypothetical challenger, new conservative darling Marco Rubio, 48-40.

All of the Republicans but Palin, including Rubio, take more Democratic support from Obama than he does GOP support from them. The largest discrepancy is Romney’s 21% of Democrats to Obama’s 12% of Republicans, followed by Huckabee’s 21% of Democrats to Obama’s 15% of Republicans. But though they make up only 18% of the electorate, the president’s huge leads with independents make up for his party-unity disadvantages and completely explain his overall leads. He wins independents by 44 points over Rubio, 41 over Palin, 36 over Huckabee, 34 over Gingrich, and 24 over Romney—remarkable considering how sharply unaffiliateds tilted right last month.

“Florida is emblematic of something we’ve been seeing in one state after another,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama is not very popular there, but voters still find him more appealing than the Republican alternatives.”

Off the ballot for now, outgoing Governor Charlie Crist would be in a tough spot if he were to run statewide again; more (35%) are dead-set against voting for him than say they would definitely vote for him (26%). He is now essentially a Democratic-leaning independent. His 50-39 approval rating depends entirely on a huge 70-26 from independents and 54-30 from Democrats to offset the 36-54 from his former party.


PPP surveyed 1,034 Florida voters from December 17th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or (919) 880-4888.
Quesitons about the poll? Contact Tom Jensen at (919) 774-6312 


Florida Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 7%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 6%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Marco Rubio?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………47%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………49%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q11 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………48%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 40
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist’s job performance?

Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q13 If Charlie Crist ran for political office again in the future would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or definitely not vote for him?

Would definitely vote for him ……………………… 26%
Would consider voting for him……………………. 36%
Would definitely not vote for him ………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Rick Scott?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q15 Do you support or oppose the tax deal President Obama made with Congressional Republicans last week?

Support ………………………………………………….. 47%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q16 Do you think President Obama made too many concessions to Republicans with his tax deal last week, not enough concessions to Republicans, or about the right amount of concessions to Republicans?

Too much ……………………………………………….. 22%
Too little …………………………………………………. 34%
About right ……………………………………………… 39
Not sure…………………………………………………. 5%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

Liberal ……………………………………………………. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative …………………………………………… 36%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 50
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican ……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other …………………………………… 18%

Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.

Hispanic …………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American…………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65 ………………………………………….. 28%

 


Full results (including crossover tabs) and press release: PPP_Release_National_1122.pdf


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