Raleigh, N.C. – Little has changed since PPP polled the presidential race in North Carolina last month. Tar Heels are split on President Obama’s job performance, with 49% approving and 48% disapproving, roughly identical to last month’s 48-46 spread. Accordingly, the president barely noses ahead of his two leading potential challengers, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.
Obama tops Huckabee, 48-47, essentially the same as the 45-45 tie in the March poll. The president beats Romney, 47-44, also very similar to March’s 44-42 margin; Newt Gingrich, 49-45 (47-42); Sarah Palin, 52-40 (51-40); and Donald Trump, 51-39. This is the first time Trump has been tested.
Democrats’ views of the job Obama is doing in the White House have slipped slightly since last month, from an 81-13 to a 78-19 spread. But any disappointment in the ranks disappears when it comes time to vote, as the president maintains 78-82% of his party’s votes, regardless of his opponent.
And his slippage with Democrats is balanced by inching up with independents, from 46-43 approval-disapproval to 50-44. He leads all the Republicans with unaffiliated voters by similar spreads as last month.
“Barack Obama continues to hold up pretty well in states like North Carolina and Virginia that have significant black populations,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “You could end up seeing him doing better in 2012 in those sorts of states than in places like Iowa and New Hampshire that have traditionally been more friendly to Democrats but also have populations with very few minorities.”
PPP will release numbers later this week looking at how NC State fans are reacting to Mark Gottfried’s hire as the school’s new basketball coach.
PPP surveyed 507 North Carolina voters from April 14th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 What best describes when you started living in
North Carolina?
Sometime between 2000 and now……………… 19%
1990s…………………………………………………….. 15%
1980s…………………………………………………….. 11%
1970s…………………………………………………….. 12%
1960s…………………………………………………….. 12%
1950s…………………………………………………….. 13%
1940s…………………………………………………….. 10%
1930s…………………………………………………….. 5%
Before 1930 ……………………………………………. 3%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q19
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 26%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 11%
919………………………………………………………… 21%
