Raleigh, N.C. – The good news for President Obama: after giving him a four-point margin over John McCain in 2008, Ohio has voted for the ultimate winner of the presidential election every year since 1964, and he now leads all four of the nominal GOP frontrunners in 2012. The bad news: all four leads are within the margin of error, and two of the candidates come closer to beating him than McCain did.
Obama tops Mike Huckabee, 45-44, and Mitt Romney, 44-42. As in most other states in which PPP has polled the race so far, he pulls out to larger leads against Newt Gingrich (47-41) and Sarah Palin (49-42). The secret to Huckabee’s and Romney’s success is that they lock up Republicans just as much as Obama does Democrats, they have small leads with independents, and they take slightly more Democrats than Obama does Republicans. Against the other two, however, the President reverses those trends, holding Palin and Gingrich to under 80% of their party’s vote, and earning small leads with independents.
Ohio is one state where Palin is not the least popular of the Republicans. Her 37-52 favorability margin tops Gingrich’s 30-51 because she is, for once, more popular with independents and, as is often the case, with Republicans. Huckabee is by far the most popular, with a 41-36 overall mark. He is the only of the four who is more popular with the GOP than unpopular with the opposite party. Huckabee’s 47-31 with independents is far-and-away the best, with Romney’s 38-36 making him the only other one with a positive margin with that group. He stands at 36-39 overall.
Obama’s job approval rating stands at 42%, with 49% disapproving, still pretty weak in an electorate of registered voters instead of likely voters. He stands at only 71-15 with his own party, but the extreme disfavor Democrats have towards the Republicans means they come home when it comes time to vote. 87% of Republicans and 54% of independents disapprove of his job performance.
“Barack Obama has miserable approval numbers in Ohio yet still leads all of the Republicans,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That speaks to the remarkable weakness of the GOP candidate field. They may need a fresh face to win in 2012.”
PPP surveyed 510 Ohio voters from December 10th to 12th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
