Raleigh, N.C. — The Presidential race in crucial Ohio remains basically unchanged since PPP last polled the state in June, showing an identical 3 point edge for President Barack Obama. The incumbent actually opened up a significant lead over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney among independents, from a tie two months ago to a 10 point advantage now, but that surge was offset by Republicans coming home to their nominee.
Both Obama’s approval numbers and Romney’s favorability ticked up in the latest survey, although for different reasons. The president shaved a couple of points off of his disapproval rating through gains made with independents, who now disapprove by 3 points, down from 16. Romney picked up quite a bit more, going from a -19 favorable rating to -11, but this came largely from a 16 point swing in his favor from Republicans.
With the poll having begun a couple of days before Romney made his VP selection, PPP was unable to test an Obama-Biden, Romney-Ryan matchup. However, Paul Ryan’s favorability rating was measured at +1. The partisan splits are largely predictable, with independents cool to Ryan at -11.
While his 67% name recognition is certainly more than healthy for an out-of-state representative, we can assume that the numbers will shift as Ryan becomes more visible on the national stage. That said, there is reason to believe that even some of those who offered an opinion don’t know much about the Wisconsin Republican.
“Barack Obama continues to hold a slight advantage in Ohio,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the race remains close there and it still looks very much like a swing state.”
Senator Sherrod Brown picked up a few points to bring his lead to 10 over Republican Josh Mandel in a steady race. This comes on the steam of a reversed approval rating, from -4 to +4.
PPP surveyed 961 likely Ohio voters from August 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q7 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 47%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
