Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama looks to have a moderately comfortable lead in Pennsylvania, one of the many battleground states in the upcoming presidential election.
In a head-to-head matchup with presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney, the president owns a 50-42 advantage. Obama’s lead over Romney has jumped one point since the last Pennsylvania general election poll in March, when he held a 49-42 advantage.
53% of Pennsylvania voters have an unfavorable opinion of native son Rick Santorum, and Republican Gov. Tom Corbett’s disapproval rating is at 50%. Just 33% of Pennsylvania voters approve of Republican Senator Pat Toomey’s job performance.
Santorum’s favorability rating with state Republicans has dropped since the pre-Republican primary poll in April, when he polled at 62%. Now the former Senator polls at 58% favorability with state Republicans.
Adding Corbett or Santorum to the Romney ticket doesn’t meaningfully improve Romney’s chances against an Obama-Biden ticket. Romney-Corbett would narrow the margin to 6 points (43-49) and Romney-Santorum would keep the margin the same at 8 points (43-51).
Adding Toomey to the Romney ticket would widen the margin with Obama by one point to 40-49.
The only Pennsylvania Republican whose favorability reached 50% with state voters was former Gov. and Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge. Adding Ridge to the Romney ticket would narrow Obama’s lead to 5 points (43-48).
“Our polling for most of last year suggested Pennsylvania could be very competitive in 2012,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Barack Obama’s now looking more like the clear favorite to win the state again by a healthy margin as he did in 2008.”
PPP surveyed 671 Pennsylvania voters from May 17th to 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .37%
Disapprove…………. .50%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Tom Corbett for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Corbett ……………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Toomey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .33%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .31%
Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Pat Toomey for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Toomey……………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rick Santorum for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 51%
Romney-Santorum…………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Ridge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Tom Ridge for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Ridge………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lynn Swann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q13 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Lynn Swann for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Swann ………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 12%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
