Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last polled the 2012 presidential contest in Wisconsin in February, President Obama was looking a little more vulnerable than in 2008, leading Mike Huckabee by only seven points and Mitt Romney by 10, when he actually beat John McCain by 14. But Huckabee is now out of the picture, and Obama has increased his margins over Romney and the remaning crew.
The president’s approval rating is up to 52%, with 44% disapproving, double the margin of his 49-45 spread in the previous poll. Meanwhile, all his potential opponents tested have cratered in popularity, with the worst being newly official candidate Newt Gingrich. Gingrich was already at a 26-49 favorability spread in February, but now measures at 15-67, a 29-point decline, and now worse than Sarah Palin’s 32-63.
Romney now trails the president, 51-39, and Gingrich has fallen six points from that same mark to 53-35, just a point better than Palin’s 55-36 deficit. The president wins with independents by 11 to 24 points, but still has room to improve; respondents report voting for him over McCain by only nine points.
In a case of “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t,” Rep. Paul Ryan does best against Obama in his home state, despite negative consequences for his Medicare proposal being felt by Republicans elsewhere. He trails only 50-43. He has become personally less popular in the last three months (from a 36-35 favorability spread to 41-46), but that negative movement has occurred entirely with Democrats. Independents are still split on him, and Republicans are even more behind him. So he comes closer than his 49-40 deficit then because he has increased his notoriety and rallied his base.
“Wisconsin was one of the closest states in the country in 2000 and 2004 before Barack Obama blew it open there in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It doesn’t look like it will be regaining its former swing state status next year.”
PPP surveyed 1,636 Wisconsin voters from May 19th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 15%
Unfavorable……….. 67%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 63%
Not sure ……………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 29%
Unfavorable……….. 49%
Not sure ……………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable ………….. 41%
Unfavorable……….. 46%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If something else,
press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
