Polls

Obama leads the GOP field in North Carolina

| Tom Jensen

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President_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama is at majority approval in North Carolina for the first time since June 2009, five months into his now 28-month term.  50% approve and 46% disapprove, up from 49-48 last month.  And he may have lucked out when Mike Huckabee declined the chance to depose him next year.  Huckabee was consistently the president’s strongest challenger in the South, including in North Carolina. 

PPP’s latest poll of the Tar Heel State has Huckabee trailing the president by one point, the same as last month and almost every month, and basically the same as Obama’s margin over John McCain in 2008.  The toughest remaining competitor so far, Mitt Romney, is not much further behind that pace, trailing by three (46-43), the same as last month.  But as he officially announced his candidacy, another Southerner, Newt Gingrich, has seen his deficit double from four points last month to eight now (50-42).  Sarah Palin, the biggest remaining question mark in the potential GOP field, is down 52-40, as in April.

Romney’s and Gingrich’s problem is Republicans, and if one of them manages to survive the primary, his biggest task will be shoring up the base.  A third of North Carolina Republicans dislike each, while only 48% have a favorable impression of Gingrich, and 43% of Romney.  By comparison, Huckabee gets the nod from 65% of them, and only 19% see him negatively.  While most Republicans come around when it is time to vote, Romney and Gingrich still leave more on the fence than does Huckabee, suggesting a possible enthusiasm problem for the GOP’s turnout operation.  79% support Gingrich against the president, 80% Romney, and 86% Huckabee.

“North Carolina continues to be one of the swing states where Barack Obama’s holding up the best,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “He can afford to lose the Floridas and Ohios of the world next year if he maintains this level of strength in the Tar Heel state.”

PPP surveyed 835 North Carolina voters from May 12th to 15th.  The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.  PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.  PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 72%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q18
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 23%
704………………………………………………………… 15%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 23%

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