Raleigh, N.C. – In its first poll of one of the most crucial yet least talked-about presidential swing states in four months, PPP finds yet another example of the large electability gap between Mitt Romney and new frontrunner Newt Gingrich. Romney trails President Obama by two points (47-45), while Gingrich lags by eight (50-42), nearly John McCain’s nine-point loss margin. All of the other contenders, now looking like long shots, are even further behind: Ron Paul by nine (48-39), Rick Perry by 15 (52-37), and had he stayed in the race, Herman Cain by 16 (52-36).
Gingrich was not tested in the previous poll, but in early August, Romney was behind by seven points (48-41). The margin has tightened despite the president’s approval rating remaining almost identical (45% approving and 50% disapproving, versus 46-50), and Romney’s favorability rating only improving by a few points (35% favorable and 53% unfavorable, as opposed to 30-51). And Romney is still viewed far more poorly than the president is, reinforcing the notion of the election being a referendum on the president, despite the unpopularity of the GOP field.
The president has improved over Romney with the large chunk of voters that belong to neither party. The 28% of the electorate who claim to be independents have moved from 42-40 to 49-37 for Obama, but Romney has gained ground by cutting into Obama’s party. He was already getting 10% of Democrats in August, but that is now 14%. Meanwhile, Obama gets a still healthy 8% of Republicans, but Romney is up from 80% to 84% of the GOP. Obama does so much better against Gingrich because he takes a 24-point lead with independents (56-32). Plus, the former Speaker pulls only 11% of the president’s base, while getting similar numbers with Republicans as Romney.
“Colorado is just another example of an emerging truth,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney, it’s a toss up. But if they go with Newt Gingrich Obama should be reelected comfortably.”
PPP surveyed 793 Colorado voters from December 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
