Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama is in trouble right now even in Connecticut, a state he won by over 22 points in 2008. His approval rating is under water, and he leads his strongest challenger by only two points. But if he faces anyone else, he is headed for another double-digit victory. Such is the gap in electability between Mitt Romney and the other Republican contenders, particularly in Romney’s adopted New England.
Only 48% of Nutmeg State voters approve of the president’s job performance, with 49% disapproving, a huge tumble from the 55-39 margin measured when PPP last polled the state in March. Most of that comes from Republicans (down to 12-86 from 19-76) and independents (41-53 from 48-43), who have each moved 17 points, like the overall electorate. But even 20% of the plurality Democrats now disapprove, up from 16%.
Romney is about equally as liked as the president, something rarely seen outside red states, even though Romney is usually the most popular GOP aspirant. 41% have a favorable opinion of neighboring Massachusetts’ former governor, and 42% unfavorable. That compares to Rick Perry’s 27-54, Newt Gingrich’s 30-58, Ron Paul’s 25-55, and Michele Bachmann’s 24-60.
Romney sits behind Obama only 47-45, but Perry is down 12 points, 53-41; Paul down 13, 51-38; Gingrich by 16, 54-38; and Bachmann by 19, 55-36. All five earn double-digit percentages of the Democratic vote. But Romney is the only one to hold the president under 50% because he puts more Democrats on the fence. Romney also is the only candidate to lead the president with independents, by 12 points. Paul lags by one, Perry by four, Gingrich by seven, and Bachmann by nine.
“Connecticut probably won’t be a swing state at the end of the day,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the fact that it’s even close there at this point is symbolic of his broader issues.”
PPP surveyed 592 Connecticut voters from September 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 26%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 11%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 20%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
