Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama is in no danger of losing Massachusetts, but his lead there has shrunk since the last time PPP polled the state in March. Obama leads Romney by 16 points, 55-39, down from a whopping 23-point lead three months ago when Romney was in the midst of getting battered by his Republican primary rivals. At that point, Obama led 58-35.
Obama still has a +10% net positive approval rating, with 53% of voters approving of his job performance and 43% disapproving. But that number is cut almost in half from March, when it was 57-38. The difference is with men and independent voters – in March, the President enjoyed a 52-42 rating with men, and now it’s down to 49-47. And in March Obama was nearly even with independent voters, who gave him a 46-48 mark. That has since deteriorated to 40-53.
While Romney’s overall approval rating in the state is still a dismal 39-56, it’s an improvement from March when it was at 37-57. He’s strengthened his favorability rating with men to 44-51, whereas it was at 34-58 with them in March.
“Barack Obama’s going to win Massachusetts easily,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But as in other states we’ve polled recently, his position isn’t as strong as it was 3 months ago.”
There are some signs that Obama’s recent attacks on Romney’s record as Governor of Massachusetts are taking hold – Massachusetts voters disapprove of the work Romney did as Governor by a 40%-46% margin. This is a reversal from March when 48% of MA voters said they approved of Romney’s work as Governor and 40% disapproved.
Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are widely unknown in the state, with at least 65% of voters not having an opinion of either. Obama still leads Romney by 15% when these candidates are introduced into the field – he leads Romney 53% to 38% while Stein gets 3% and Johnson 1%.
PPP surveyed 902 Massachusetts voters from June 22nd to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jill Stein?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green
Party candidate Jill Stein, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Jill Stein …………………………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q7 Regardless of how you feel about him now, do
you approve or disapprove of the work Mitt
Romney did while he was Governor of
Massachusetts?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Do you consider Mitt Romney to be a Bay
Stater, or not?
He is ……………………………………………………… 25%
He is not…………………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 34%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 8%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 13%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 48%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
Other……………………………………………………… 15%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
