Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last polled New Hampshire last July, Mitt Romney led President Obama by two points. Now, in a state Romney calls home during the summer but which Obama won by almost 10 points over John McCain, the president leads by 12. And one of the popular new names in Romney’s running mate mix, the state’s freshman Sen. Kelly Ayotte, would be of little help in closing that gap.
Obama tops Romney now, 53-41, a 14-point reversal from Romney’s 46-44 lead 10 months ago. With Ayotte on the ticket versus the Obama-Biden slate, that lead would fall but only to 52-42. Similarly, Ayotte’s predecessor, Judd Gregg, would only basically help Romney run in place (52-41).
The reason for this huge boost in Obama’s fortunes in this swing state is two-fold: an improvement in his own public image and a decline in Romney’s. Romney is improving with his partisans (up from 63% to 77% favorability with Republicans), but has slipped drastically from a barely positive 43-42 favorability spread overall to 40% seeing him favorably and 54% unfavorably now. That negative movement is entirely with Democrats (from 25-58 to 8-89) and independents (43-40 to 38-53). On the flip side, 52% approve and 45% disapprove of the president’s job performance, up 10 points on the margin from 46-49 last summer. Obama is also consolidating support with his base (from 83% to 92% approval) but also with independents (from 39% to 51%).
Things look similar in the horse race: Obama has 93% of his own party (up from 82%), 50% of independents (35%), and 13% of Republicans (11%), keeping Romney at only 82% of his own party. Ayotte and Gregg only help a tick with the GOP, but not at all with independents.
“New Hampshire is really emblematic of the way the primary season hurt Mitt Romney’s appeal to Democrats and independents,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama’s position there has improved tremendously.”
PPP surveyed 1,163 New Hampshire voters from May 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kelly
Ayotte’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .43%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Kelly Ayotte for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 52%
Romney-Ayotte ……………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Judd Gregg?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Judd Gregg for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 52%
Romney-Gregg ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q11 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
