Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama has held his ground or slightly increased his share of the vote against his prospective Republican opponents since PPP last took a measure of the American electorate in March. His closest challenger for the national popular vote is Mike Huckabee, who lags 43-48, the same deficit as last month. Close behind is Mitt Romney, down 41-47 (42-47). Obama beat John McCain by seven points in 2008. Unlikely candidates Chris Christie (39-48) and Rand Paul (38-48) trail Obama as well, as do Newt Gingrich (38-52, versus 39-50 in March) and Sarah Palin (36-54 versus 38-53). No candidate has lost the nationwide vote by 18 points since Walter Mondale won only his own state and D.C. against Ronald Reagan in 1984.
The president wins by racking up the independent vote by double-digit margins against everyone but Christie, who holds him to a seven-point advantage. The others trail with this group by ten (Huckabee and Romney) to a whopping 28 points (Palin). Obama also pads his leads by getting double-digit GOP support against Gingrich and Palin.
The president’s approval rating is essentially where it was last month. 47% approve then and now, and 48% disapprove now, versus 47% last month. The only slight movement has occurred with independents, who have shifted in Obama’s favor (from 46-47 to 49-42), and Republicans (who have aligned further against him, from 11-86 to 8-90).
Perhaps surprisingly, more voters (71%) profess an opinion of Paul than Christie (58%). Both are lesser known than the other four, but Paul not much less than Romney (75%) or Huckabee (78%). 28% have a favorable opinion of Christie, and 30% an unfavorable one, the best mark of any of the Republicans by a wide margin. Next is Huckabee (36-42), then Romney (32-43), Paul (26-45), and finally Gingrich (28-55) and Palin (31-61). Almost as many voters can express an opinion about Palin as the president, and his break-even marks look stratospheric next to voters’ 2:1 displeasure with her.
“Obama’s negative approval rating and leads over Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney that are smaller than his 2008 margin of victory show that he is somewhat weakened,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the weakness of the Republican candidate field would still allow him to be reelected if we voted today.”
PPP surveyed 532 registered American voters from April 7th to 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Rand Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
