Raleigh, N.C. – In 2008, frequent bellwether state Missouri had the closest presidential race in the country. John McCain edged out Barack Obama by about 0.1% of the vote. In 2012, the Show-Me State should have another nail-biter. The president trails his strongest opponent by six points, ties two others, and leads the weakest by five.
President Obama has increased his advantage over Sarah Palin since PPP last polled the state late last November, leading her 48-43, up from 46-43. He has improved even more against perhaps the strongest candidate nationally, Mitt Romney, now down only 44-43, versus 47-41 last time. And he is at essentially the same place versus Newt Gingrich, tied at 44% (45-44 deficit previously), and Mike Huckabee, down 49-43 (49-42).
Huckabee leads 49-35, Romney 45-33, and Gingrich 41-39 with independents, but Palin lags 43-40. Palin is the only candidate to lose more Republican voters to Obama than she takes Democrats from him. The president locks up 85-90% of his party’s votes, while the Republicans, except Huckabee (89%), take only 80-85% of the GOP. Romney does worst with the GOP, pulling only 80% and leaving 16% undecided (11% for Gingrich, 10% for Palin, and only 5% for Huckabee). Only 2-7% of Democrats are undecided.
The president’s job approval rating has remained unchanged in the state in the last few months, with 43% approving and 52% disapproving. Those are poor numbers compared to his national standing, but all except one of his potential opponents are in worse shape. Huckabee has a 45-35 favorability margin, still good, but down significantly from 51-29 in the previous poll. All the others are in negative territory, and all but Romney have worsened slightly, with Romney at 32-44, Palin at 37-56, and Gingrich at 31-50.
“Mike Huckabee is currently outperforming John McCain, but if President Obama faces anyone else, it’ll be another down-to-the-wire finish in Missouri,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
New Senator Roy Blunt comes in with almost upside-down numbers from where his predecessor, Kit Bond, finished his term. 37% approve and 41% disapprove of Blunt’s early performance, while Bond went out with a 45-36 spread.
PPP surveyed 612 Missouri voters from March 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 31%
Unfavorable……….. 50%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 45%
Unfavorable……….. 35%
Not sure ……………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 37%
Unfavorable……….. 56%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 44%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Roy
Blunt’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
