Raleigh, N.C. – There has been speculation that President Obama’s re-election campaign may make a play for the 16 electoral votes of what is now the eighth largest state: Georgia. That may be a smart move, judging by PPP’s latest poll. While no Democrat has won the state since Bill Clinton in 1992, and the party has not won it without a Southerner on the ticket since 1944, Obama lost to John McCain there by only five points. And it now joins Southern neighbors Mississippi, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia as states where Obama has improved since 2008, according to recent PPP polls.
Obama trails the candidates who are typically his strongest competitors, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, by only three points, 48-45 against Huckabee and 46-43 against Romney. What may be the biggest surprise, though, is that Obama actually narrowly leads Georgia natives Newt Gingrich, 46-45, and Herman Cain, 44-39. He also tops Sarah Palin, 48-43.
Georgians are split on Obama’s job performance, with 47% approving and 48% disapproving. But except Huckabee, of whom 48% have a favorable opinion and only a third an unfavorable one, all of Obama’s potential opponents are seen negatively: Romney 37-41, Gingrich 39-47, Cain 28-36, and Palin 35-56.
Not only do Georgians not really like their native sons, but majorities also do not want them to even jump into the race. Only 31% want Gingrich to make a bid, with 50% against it. The split is only 23-52 for Cain. Independents are against the two men’s candidacies by an identical 32-42 margin, and even Republicans are not particularly gung-ho, supporting a Gingrich campaign only 44-33 and a Cain one merely 36-34.
“It probably tells you everything you need to know about the viability of a Newt Gingrich Presidential bid that he’s not even ahead against Barack Obama in Georgia,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This may be the state Obama lost in 2008 that he has the best chance of flipping next year.”
PPP surveyed 790 Georgia voters from March 31st to April 3rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 Do you want Newt Gingrich to run for President
next year?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 Do you want Herman Cain to run for President
next year?
Yes………………………………………………………… 23%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 11%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 65%
African American……………………………………… 29%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
