Raleigh, N.C. – As President Obama suffers a summer low nationally, his approval is dipping underwater in Virginia. Now only 47% of Virginia voters approve of Obama compared to 48% who disapprove. Though Obama runs fairly strong with independents, 48-42, Republicans are more united in their disapproval, 5-93, than Democrats are in their approval, 89-7. Obama’s numbers are down from his 51-44 rating in May at the height of his Bin Laden bounce. Obama’s approval is down particularly among men with whom he broke even in May, 49-49, but has a 41-55 deficit with now.
As voters sour on Obama, Obama’s closest competitor, Mitt Romney, is gaining. However, Romney has yet to fully catch up to the president. Obama now leads Romney 47-43 (51-40 in May), but holds wider leads over Rick Perry, 48-39, Michele Bachmann, 49-40, Herman Cain, 49-38, and Sarah Palin, 51-37 (55-40 in May). Obama holds the edge by locking in Democrats while winning over independents by a narrow margin. Virginia is another example of the electability divide between Mitt Romney and the rest of the GOP field. Romney keeps things close by holding a deficit with independents less than half the size of his fellow Republicans.
Obama manages to stay ahead despite his poor ratings by virtue of the unpopularity of his opponents. Cain is least disliked with a 27-35 favorability rating. He is followed by Perry at 25-35, Romney at 34-49, Bachmann at 30-49, and Palin at a dismal 28-62. While perceptions of Bachmann, Romney, and Palin are set for most voters, Perry and Cain are still unknown by around 40% of the populous; they have the potential to improve their image as they get better acquainted with the voters.
“The leads may be tenuous but it is notable that Obama remains ahead in Virginia even during a period where he is struggling nationally,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This really looks like it will be a pivotal, perhaps the most pivotal, state in next year’s election.”
PPP surveyed 500 Virginia voters from July 21th to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q18
276………………………………………………………… 5%
434………………………………………………………… 9%
540………………………………………………………… 25%
703………………………………………………………… 21%
757………………………………………………………… 21%
804………………………………………………………… 18%
