Raleigh, N.C. – Though Democrats were walloped in Michigan in 2010, Michigan in 2012 is shaping up to be much more like Michigan in 2008. As Obama’s approval rating falls underwater nationally, Michigan still approves 50-46 (47-45 in March). Democrats approve 89-8, almost as strongly as Republicans disapprove, 8-91. Independents aren’t too fond of the president, rating Obama 41-53. Obama remains above water thanks to a 40% Democratic plurality in the state.
Obama easily tops most of his prospective opponents. While Mitt Romney, whose father was governor of Michigan, holds Obama to just a 47-42 lead (48-41 in March), Obama has a double digit advantage over the other candidates. Obama leads Rick Perry 50-35, Michele Bachmann 53-37, Herman Cain 50-33, Sarah Palin 54-36, and native son Thad McCotter 50-31. Obama takes at least 88% of the Democratic vote while winning with independents against all but Romney. However, Obama’s margin could narrow as the election draws near as more undecided voters are Republicans than Democrats.
Obama is aided by the unpopularity of his competition. Romney is least disliked with a 39-43 favorability rating. He is followed by Cain at 20-29, Bachmann at 32-42, Perry at 18-33, McCotter at 13-29, and Palin at 35-57. Cain, Perry, and McCotter each have a lot of room to improve their image as they are unknown by at least 48% of the electorate. McCotter has the most work to do as being the least known candidate in his own home state does not bode well for his presidential prospects.
Obama also benefits from the popularity in Michigan of his bailout of the auto industry. A majority of voters, 51-30, feel that the bailout was a success. By an even larger margin, 66-18, voters feel that the bailout was a good thing for Michigan. Even a significant plurality of Republicans, 47-29, feel that the bailout package was good for Michigan. If Republicans run against Obama deploring an expanded role for government, this could backfire in Michigan.
PPP surveyed 593 Michigan voters from July 21th to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thad McCotter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Thad McCotter, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Thad McCotter ………………………………………… 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 Do you think the bailout of the auto industry
has been a success or not?
It’s been a success ………………………………….. 51%
It has not………………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q15 Do you think the bailout of the auto industry
has proven to be a good thing or a bad thing
for Michigan?
Good……………………………………………………… 66%
Bad ……………………………………………………….. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
