Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama has quite possibly dropped more in Connecticut than in any other state he won in 2008. He beat John McCain in the Nutmeg State by over 22 points, and now leads Mitt Romney by only eight among likely voters in this fall’s election. But there is almost no chance that margin closes much if any further in this still pretty strongly Democratic state.
Obama has 51% to Romney’s 43%. That is down from the 61-38 victory he scored over McCain, but up from his only two-point edge (47-45) the last time PPP polled the state in September 2011. That is because of three things: Obama is up from 79% to 83% of his own party, which makes up over 40% of the electorate; he is now poaching 15% of Romney’s partisans, up from 9% last fall; and Romney is down from a 12-point lead (48-36) with the state’s sizeable chunk of independents to only a seven-point edge (47-40).
This shift from being a shocking toss-up to only a surprising lean-Obama state also mirrors the diverging paths in the two candidates’ personal numbers. Last fall was a relative low point for Obama’s approval figures, and Romney had yet to actually go before primary voters. Connecticut voters then almost broke even on him, with 41% seeing him favorably and 42% unfavorably in the state next door to the one he governed. That is now 41-53. Meanwhile, Obama is now in the positive approval-wise, up from 48-49 to 50-46.
Unlike in some other states where PPP has recently tested the four most commonly mentioned potential running mates for Romney, there is no slam-dunk prospective VP here. Condi Rice would close the gap by three points to 48-43, but Bobby Jindal (51-41) and Tim Pawlenty (49-39) would each actually up Obama’s advantage by two points, and Rob Portman would by three (51-40). Rice makes six points of difference for Romney in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, and two points in Florida, turning a close Obama lead into a close Romney one in Florida and an Obama lead to a tie in Pennsylvania.
“Obama doesn’t actually have to worry about losing Connecticut,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But his single digit lead there certainly shows he’s not as strong as he was in 2008.”
PPP surveyed 771 likely Connecticut voters from July 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Bobby Jindal for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 51%
Romney-Jindal………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Tim Pawlenty for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 51%
Romney-Pawlenty……………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Portman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rob Portman for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Portman…………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Condoleezza Rice for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Rice ………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 59%
He should not………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
