Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama starts the general election with a 5 point advantage over Mitt Romney in Florida, 50-45. This is the biggest lead Obama’s had in Florida over the course of five polls PPP’s done in the state since the beginning of 2011.
The main reason for Obama’s enhanced standing in the state is that his own popularity is on the rise. 51% of voters now approve of him to 45% who disapprove. His numbers with Republicans are unchanged from the last time we polled the state but he’s now getting strong marks from independents (57/37, up from 43/50) and Democrats are unifying around him as the general election approaches (he’s at 86/11, up from 73/20).
In the head to head with Romney Obama wins independents 53-34, while each candidate gets a pretty even amount of support from his own party with Obama at 84% of the Democratic vote and Romney at 83% of the GOP vote. Obama is up 69-21 with young voters and 52-37 with Hispanics.
We also looked at how four prominent Florida Republicans- Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Allen West, and Rick Scott- might affect the race as Vice Presidential candidates. Only Bush has a positive impact for Romney, bringing the race within three points at 49-46. Bush continues to be a popular figure in the state with 52% of voters viewing him favorably to 40% with a negative opinion.
Rubio’s drawn the most attention as a potential Veep pick, but with him on the ticket Romney actually drops from 45% to 43% with Obama staying at 50%. There’s not much evidence Rubio would be able to draw Hispanic voters to Romney. In the straight Obama/Romney match Obama leads 52-37 with Hispanics and in the Obama/Biden v. Romney/Rubio match Obama still leads 52-37 with Hispanics.
“Barack Obama’s looking very strong in Florida right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s bad news for the GOP because it’s hard to see them winning this fall without the Sunshine State in their column.”
PPP surveyed 700 Florida voters from April 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .43%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 34%
Disapprove………… 54%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allen West?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q12 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Jeb
Bush, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Bush …………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q13 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Marco
Rubio, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 50%
Romney-Rubio………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q14 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Rick
Scott, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 51%
Romney-Scott …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q15 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Allen
West, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 50%
Romney-West …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 31%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
