Raleigh, N.C. — President Barack Obama holds a 5 point lead over Mitt Romney in PPP’s latest survey of the state, 48% to 43%. This represents a drop off in support for Obama since he led the Republican challenger by 10 points when the state was last surveyed in May.
The change in the horserace corresponds almost perfectly with a drop in Obama’s approval rating, which fell to -2 (47% to 49%) from +3 (49% to 46%) 3 months ago. Romney is still outperforming his dismal favorable rating, which made a modest improvement since the last poll, from -22 (34% to 56%) to -18 (37% to 55%). A shift in support among independents explains much of the change in the numbers, as Obama’s lead with the important swing group has shrunk from +20 to +8.
Two well known Iowa Republicans would not help Romney’s cause if he were to select one as his running mate. Governor Terry Branstad, despite a better approval rating than either top of the ticket candidate at +2, brings Romney’s deficit to -7. The considerably less popular Representative Steve King also hurts Romney’s chances in the state, delivering President Obama a lead of +8.
The fallout of the Supreme Court’s healthcare decision continues to affect Chief Justice John Roberts’ favorability rating. The top judge garners a net rating of -2, while the decision itself is at -5. The partisan trend in Roberts’ approval continues in Iowa, as Democrats like him but Republicans don’t.
PPP also asked Iowa voters to estimate each candidate’s age. While 29% of respondents correctly put Obama, 50, in the 50-54 range, only 7% placed Romney, 65, in the 65 to 69 bracket.
“Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite in Iowa,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the race there is a lot closer than it was both in 2008 and on our last poll. Mitt Romney’s within range.”
PPP surveyed 1,131 Iowa voters from July 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.91%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results can be found below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Terry Branstad for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Branstad……………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Steve King for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-King ………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q9 Do you agree or disagree with the Supreme
Court’s ruling on the health care reform bill?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 41%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Do you support or oppose the new immigration
policy Barack Obama announced last month?
Support ………………………………………………….. 35%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 Given the following list of choices, how old do
you think Barack Obama is: 35 to 39, 40 to 44,
45 to 49, 50 to 54, 55 to 59, 60 to 64, 65 to 69,
70 to 74, or are you not sure?
35 to 39………………………………………………….. 3%
40 to 44………………………………………………….. 21%
45 to 49………………………………………………….. 38%
50 to 54………………………………………………….. 29%
55 to 59………………………………………………….. 2%
60 to 64………………………………………………….. 1%
65 to 69………………………………………………….. 1%
70 to 74………………………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q12 Given the same list of choices, how old do you
think Mitt Romney is?
35 to 39………………………………………………….. 1%
40 to 44………………………………………………….. 4%
45 to 49………………………………………………….. 11%
50 to 54………………………………………………….. 23%
55 to 59………………………………………………….. 31%
60 to 64………………………………………………….. 17%
65 to 69………………………………………………….. 7%
70 to 74………………………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 13%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
