Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final poll of the cycle in Michigan finds Democrats headed for victory in
both the Presidential and Senate races. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 52-46,
consistent with the 6-8 point lead we’ve found for him in all of our polling
since the Republican convention. Debbie Stabenow leads Pete Hoekstra 55-42 in a
race that never really got competitive.
Mitt Romney would have had to do 2 things to win Michigan: run up the score
with independents and get a decent amount of crossover support from Democratic
voters. But he’s done neither. Obama is leading 49/46 with independents. And
although there’s very little crossover voting occurring, his share of Republicans
(8%) is actually higher than the 7% of Democrats Romney is getting.
“Michigan is not a swing state,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “Mitt Romney’s not getting the support he would have needed
from Democrats and independents to be seriously competitive in his native
state.”
Pete Hoekstra’s favorability numbers slipped under water after his
controversial Super Bowl ad and never recovered. Only 36% of voters have a
favorable opinion of him to 41% with a negative one. Stabenow has a solid 49/38
approval spread and is out running Obama because she’s winning over 15% of
Republicans and has a 53/41 advantage with independents.
Michigan’s emergency managers law appears headed for defeat, with only 36%
of voters supporting to 45% who are opposed. 19% are still undecided, which
suggests some possibility for an upset. It’s not terribly surprising that
Democrats (28/51) and independents (40/44) are opposed. But the real reason
it’s trailing is a lack of support from Republicans, who favor it by only a
40/38 margin.
Ballot initiatives to enshrine collective bargaining rights in the
constitution (35/55) and to create a state renewable energy standard (31/62)
both appear to be headed for pretty lopsided defeats.
PPP surveyed 700
likely voters from November 1st to 3rd. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%
Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat
Debbie Stabenow and Republican Pete
Hoekstra. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 55%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 Proposal 12-1 is a referendum on Public Act 4
of 2011, the emergency manager law. If the
election was today, would you vote ‘yes’ to
approve Public Act 4 or ‘no’ to reject it?
Yes………………………………………………………… 36%
No …………………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Proposal 12-2 would amend the state
constitution regarding collective bargaining. If
the election was today, would you vote ‘yes’ or
‘no’ on proposal 12-2?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Proposal 12-3 would amend the state
constitution to establish a standard for
renewable energy. If the election was today,
would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on Proposal 12-3?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .49%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q11 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, do you think you would vote
for Republican Rick Snyder or his Democratic
opponent?
Rick Snyder ……….. .47%
Democratic
opponent……………..41%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .23%
Q13 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Senate today, do you think you would vote for
Democrat Carl Levin or his Republican
opponent?
Carl Levin…………… .50%
Republican
opponent……………..38%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 30%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
