Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final polls in Colorado and Nevada find Barack Obama leading by margins
of 52/46 and 51/47 respectively. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Colorado since
the first Presidential debate and found Obama leading by an average of 4.25
points. PPP has conducted 3 polls in Nevada since the first debate and found
Obama ahead by a 4 point margin every time.
In Colorado Obama is winning thanks to a huge advantage among independent
voters, 59/34. He’s down 57/41 among seniors but leads 58/39 among voters under
45, a huge generational split that suggests the state may be voting Democratic
for a long time to come. Obama’s actually running slightly ahead with white
voters (50/49) and when you combine that with his big advantage among Hispanics
it fuels his overall 6 point lead.
In Nevada Obama’s going into election day with a large lead. We find that
among early voters he’s up 55/44. Romney leads 56/40 with those planning to
vote tomorrow but he’d need a much wider margin than that given that most of
the state has already voted. Obama’s leading based on overwhelming support from
Hispanic voters (66/32) and those under 30 (62/34).
The greater intrigue in Nevada will be the Senate race where we find Dean
Heller leading Shelley Berkley 48/46 with Independent American Party candidate
David Lory VanderBeek at 4%. VanderBeek seems to mostly be pulling from
Berkley- his supporters are voting for Obama by a 56/27 margin. There is one
good sign in the poll for Berkley that speaks to the potential for an upset.
Among early voters she’s leading 52/44, running only three points behind
Obama’s 55/44 standing. If she can somehow continue to only run 3 points behind
him among election day voters there’s a good chance he could pull her across
the finish line.
“Barack Obama looks like a pretty solid favorite in Colorado and Nevada,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His overwhelming support
from young voters and Hispanics makes him very strong in those places.”
PPP surveyed 1,096
likely voters in Colorado and 750 in Nevada on November 3rd and 4th.
The margin of error for Colorado is +/-3.0% and for Nevada it’s +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Colorado Toplines
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Amendment 64 is an amendment to the
Colorado constitution concerning marijuana,
and, in connection therewith, providing for the
regulation of marijuana; permitting a person
twenty-one years of age or older to consume or
possess limited amounts of marijuana;
providing for the licensing of cultivation
facilities, product manufacturing facilities,
testing facilities, and retail stores; permitting
local governments to regulate or prohibit such
facilities; requiring the general assembly to
enact an excise tax to be levied upon
wholesale sales of marijuana; requiring that the
first $40 million in revenue raised annually by
such tax be credited to the public school capital
construction assistance fund; and requiring the
general assembly to enact legislation
governing the cultivation, processing, and sale
of industrial hemp. If the election was today,
would you vote or against Amendment 64?
For ……………………. .52%
Against………………. .44%
Undecided………….. . 4%
Q3 In general, do you think marijuana usage
should be legal or illegal?
Legal …………………. .56%
Illegal ………………… .39%
Not sure …………….. . 5%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Hickenlooper’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .55%
Disapprove…………. .26%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q7 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Democratic
John Hickenlooper or his Republican
opponent?
John Hickenlooper . .54%
Republican
opponent……………..33%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .36%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. .31%
Q9 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
Mark Udall or his Republican opponent?
Mark Udall………….. .45%
Republican
opponent……………..38%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
Nevada Toplines
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%
Q2 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Shelley Berkley, Republican Dean Heller, and
Independent American Party candidate David
Lory VanderBeek. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 46%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 48%
David Lory VanderBeek ……………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%
Q3 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 74%
No …………………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dean
Heller’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Sandoval’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 58%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Republican
Brian Sandoval or his Democratic opponent?
Brian Sandoval ……………………………………….. 55%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
