Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama continues to be favored to win Nevada again in 2012, but his position there is a good deal weaker than it was in 2008. Obama leads Romney 48-42. That’s down a touch from our last poll in late March when he was ahead 51-43. And it’s down quite a bit from his 12 point margin of victory in the state in 2008.
Obama’s struggles, at least compared to last time, in Nevada can be traced back to the state’s economy. A 41% plurality of voters in the state think the economy has gotten worse since Obama took office to only 37% who think it’s gotten better. Independents are more pessimstic than the electorate as a whole, with 44% of them feeling things have worsened to 33% who believe Obama has brought an improvement.
Obama has a narrowly positive approval rating in the state, with 49% of voters giving him good marks to 47% who dissent. Nevadans still aren’t real high on Romney and that’s serving to help Obama’s prospects there. Romney has a 41% favorability rating with 53% of voters rating him negatively.
This is a rare state where Romney’s running mate choice really could have an impact on how ‘in play’ it is for the fall. Brian Sandoval is one of the most popular Governors in the country with a 52/28 approval rating. If he was on the ticket Obama’s lead in the state would drop to 47-44, very much within the winnable range for Romney. Sandoval’s presence would flip Romney from trailing 37-35 with independents to leading 43-39 with them.
36% of voters think the Supreme Court should rule the Affordable Care Act unconstitutonal, while 34% think it should be upheld. What might be most notewothy though is that 30% of voters don’t care one way or the other, suggesting that the health care issue may not have the same salience with voters in 2012 that it did in 2010.
“Barack Obama’s still a clear favorite to win Nevada this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he’s not nearly as strong there as he was in 2008.”
PPP surveyed 500 Nevada voters from June 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Sandoval’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 52%
Disapprove………… 28%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q5 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Brian Sandoval for
Vice President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Sandoval …………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q7 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Ron Paul for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 46%
Romney-Paul ………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 Do you think the economy has gotten better,
worse, or stayed about the same since Barack
Obama became President?
Better …………………………………………………….. 37%
Worse ……………………………………………………. 41%
About the same……………………………………….. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q9 Do you think that the Supreme Court should
rule the Affordable Care Act to be constitutional
or unconstitutional?
Constitutional ………………………………………….. 34%
Unconstitutional ………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
