Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s newest poll of the Presidential
race in Ohio finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-45, down just slightly
from a 50-45 advantage on our last independent poll there three weeks ago.
It’s a mistake to think based on recent polling in Ohio that the race there
is over. Obama is not popular in the state, with 48% of voters approving of him
to 49% who disapprove. Among voters who remain undecided there just 13% think
he’s doing a good job to 65% who give him poor marks. That doesn’t mean those
folks will move to Romney en masse because they don’t particularly like him
either (a 26/37 favorability rating) but it does mean there’s potential for the
race there to get within tossup range over the final five weeks.
The reason Obama continues to lead in Ohio despite not being all that
popular in his own right is Romney’s inability to make a positive impression on
voters in the state. Only 45% of voters see him favorably to 49% with a
negative opinion, numbers virtually unchanged from 44/49 on our previous poll.
Romney shot himself in the foot with his recent ‘47%’ comments. By a 53/42
margin voters thought they were inappropriate and 40% say they made them less
likely to vote for Romney compared to only 31% who considered them a positive.
One issue that’s killing Romney and may end up being what puts Obama over
the top in the state is the auto industry. 73% of voters say the candidates’
records on the auto industry is important to their votes, including 44% who say
it’s ‘very important.’ And by a 54/31 margin voters say they think Obama has
been better for the auto industry in Ohio than Romney.
“Barack Obama is still the favorite in Ohio,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “But it’s still a relatively close race there and a Mitt
Romney comeback isn’t out of the question. It’s too early for Democrats to be
celebrating or Republicans to be conceding.”
PPP surveyed 897
likely Ohio voters from September 27th to 30th. The
margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or
authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 58%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 24%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 18%
Q7 Who do you think has been better for the
automotive industry in Ohio: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Is the candidates’ for President records on the
automotive industry very important, somewhat
important, or not that important to you?
Very important…………………………………………. 44%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 29%
Not that important ……………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q9 Are you familiar with comments Mitt Romney
has made about the ‘47%’, or not?
Familiar ………………………………………………….. 90%
Not familiar……………………………………………… 10%
Q10 Mitt Romney recently said, “There are 47
percent of the people who will vote for the
president no matter what. All right? There are
47 percent who are with him, who are
dependent upon government, who believe that
they are victims, who believe the government
has a responsibility to care for them, who
believe that they are entitled to health care, to
food, to housing, to you-name-it, that that’s an
entitlement. And the government should give it
to them. And they will vote for this president no
matter what…. These are people who pay no
income tax.” Do you think Romney’s comments
were appropriate or inappropriate?
Appropriate …………………………………………….. 42%
Inappropriate…………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Do these comments make you more or less
likely to vote for Mitt Romney, or do they not
make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 31%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 40%
No difference ………………………………………….. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q12 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 50%
He should not………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 Do you think pollsters are intentionally skewing
their polls this year to help Barack Obama, or
not?
They are intentionally skewing their polls…….. 41%
They are not……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
