Polls

Obama leads by 4 in Nevada, Senate race tied

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest Nevada poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51/47, numbers
exactly identical to what they were when we last polled the state two weeks
ago. Obama is already well on his way to winning Nevada based on early votes
that have been cast in the week. Among those who say they’ve already voted he
has a 61/39 advantage. Romney is up 51/46 with those planning to vote between
now and election day.

The debates over the last couple weeks seem to have improved Obama’s image
in Nevada. 52% of voters approve of him now to 46% who disapprove, up from a
49/48 spread on our last poll. Nevadans think Obama won Monday’s debate by a
50/38 margin.

Obama’s leading based on advantages of 69/28 with Hispanics, 82/12 with
African Americans, 54/44 with women, and 58/39 with young voters. Romney’s
ahead with men (50/48), whites (57/42), and seniors (53/45). He also has a
53/44 advantage with independents but he’d probably need to take them by a
wider margin than that to overcome the Democratic registration edge in the
state.

The Nevada Senate race looks like a toss up with Dean Heller and Shelley
Berkley both at 44% and Independent American Party candidate David Lory
VanderBeek getting 7%. The tie is a shift in Berkley’s direction from a three
point deficit on our poll 2 weeks ago.

A lot of attention has been paid to Berkley’s unpopularity and there’s
really no doubt that Nevadans are not enamored with her- only 41% have a
favorable opinion to 53% with a negative one. What’s received less attention
and is a big reason why this race is competitive is that Heller isn’t exactly
popular either. He has a slightly negative approval rating with 46% of voters
giving him good marks to 47% who disapprove.

“Barack Obama’s had a persistent lead in our Nevada polling this year even
if he’s not likely to match his margin of victory from 2008,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “The Senate race looks like a toss up and
is likely be decided by Obama voters who have their doubts about both of the
candidates.”

PPP surveyed 636
likely voters from October 22nd to 24th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.9%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dean
Heller’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .47%
Not sure …………….. . 7%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q6 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Shelley Berkley, Republican Dean
Heller, and Independent American Party
candidate David Lory VanderBeek. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 44%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 44%
David Lory VanderBeek ……………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q7 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 66%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q10 Who do you think won the final Presidential
debate: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q12 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q13 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 75%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 16%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 8%

Q14 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%

Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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