Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Iowa and New Hampshire find
Barack Obama with identical 50-48 leads. These small advantages for Obama are
consistent with what PPP’s found since the first Presidential debate- 5 Iowa
polls have produced an average Obama lead of 1.8 points and 3 New Hampshire
polls have produced an average Obama lead of a single point.
In Iowa Obama’s already built up a large lead among people who participated
in the early voting period, 61/39. Romney’s up 56/41 with people planning to
cast their ballots on election day but he’ll need to win by an even wider
margin than that if he’s going to take the state.
Obama’s leading in Iowa thanks particularly to strong support from
independents (51/43) and women (52/46). He trails 53/45 with seniors but is
winning with every other age group.
In New Hampshire the candidates are tied with independents but Obama has the
slight overall advantage because he’s winning over 9% of Republicans while just
4% of Democrats are planning to vote for Romney. Just as in Iowa Obama’s
relying on strong support from women (54/45) and winning across most of the age
spectrum.
“Iowa and New Hampshire look like they’re going to be pretty close,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But we have pretty
persistently found Obama with small leads in these states over the last couple
weeks.”
Democrat Maggie Hassan is looking like the favorite to be the next Governor
of New Hampshire. For the second week in a row we find her with a 4 point lead
over Ovide Lamontagne- the breakdown this time is 51/47. Voters have a positive
opinion of Hassan (44/39) while Lamontagne is quite unpopular (40/46). Hassan’s
winning 51/46 with independents and taking 11% of Republicans to Lamontagne’s
5% of Democrats.
PPP surveyed 1,122
likely voters in Iowa and 1,550 in New Hampshire on November 3rd and
4th. The margin of error for Iowa is +/-2.9% and for New Hampshire it’s +/-2.5%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Iowa Toplines
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 47%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q6 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, do you think you would vote
for Republican Terry Branstad or his
Democratic opponent?
Terry Branstad ……. .49%
Democratic
opponent……………..40%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Senate today, do you think you would vote for
Democrat Tom Harkin or his Republican
opponent?
Tom Harkin…………. .48%
Republican
opponent……………..40%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 34%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
New Hampshire Toplines
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%
Q2 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide
Lamontagne. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 51%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Maggie Hassan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Jeanne Shaheen’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Senate today, do you think you would vote for
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen or her Republican
opponent?
Jeanne Shaheen…. .49%
Republican
opponent……………..39%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
