Raleigh, N.C. – As Obama’s Bin Laden bounce fades the gap has narrowed between Obama and his prospective GOP opponents. Obama now leads Mitt Romney by just 47-45 compared to 47-42 in May. This is the narrowest lead Obama has had over Romney this year. Other GOP candidates are not so close. Obama beats Sarah Palin 52-38 (54-37 in May), Newt Gingrich 52-39 (52-38 in May), Tim Pawlenty 50-39 (47-33 in March), and Herman Cain 48-38 (47-29 in March).
Obama benefits from the deep unpopularity of the Republican field. Romney is best liked with 37% of voters seeing him favorably compared to 47% who seem him unfavorably. He is followed by Pawlenty at 25-42, Cain at 20-38, Palin at 29-59, and Gingrich at a dismal 16-68. Gingrich’s disastrous news cycle has taken its toll as his rating has fallen considerably from May when he rated 29-53. However, Gingrich has likely already hit his floor in the general election as he performs just as strongly against Obama as he did in May.
Though both Pawlenty and Cain lose by double digits in a general election matchup, they have more room to grow than Romney, Palin, or Gingrich. 33% and 41% are still unsure how they feel about Pawlenty and Cain respectively. This is over twice that of the other Republican candidates. In their general election matchups with Obama, more of the undecided are Republicans than Democrats, this could indicate that as more voters get to know Pawlenty and Cain, the general election spread could continue to tighten.
“Our polling is increasingly showing both nationally and in swing states that if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee it’s a toss up at this point and that if the GOP nominates anyone else Barack Obama is in pretty good shape,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 520 American voters from June 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you think Sarah Palin is going to run for
President or not?
She will ………………………………………………….. 34%
She will not …………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 68%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
