Raleigh, N.C. – Since PPP last took a look at the crucial battle for North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, Barack Obama has only strengthened himself, unlike in most states. In September, Obama tied Rick Perry at 46% apiece, led Mitt Romney by one point (45-44), Michele Bachmann by two (47-45), and Newt Gingrich by five (48-43). Now, he still leads Romney by one (46-45), but tops Perry by four (48-44) and Bachmann and Gingrich each by seven (49-42). He also leads Ron Paul by three (46-43). Romney leads by 16, Paul by 14, Gingrich by five, Perry by two, and Bachmann by only one point with independents. For Perry, that is down from 23 points in September.
The president’s approval rating in the Tar Heel State has hardly changed. 44% approve, up from 43%, with 53% still disapproving. Most of his improved standing comes from the fact that he is still more popular than the Republican field. No candidate had a worse September than Rick Perry. Not long after he debuted on the scene with strength in the South, Perry has already tanked. The most popular candidate in the previous poll, with a 34-43 favorability rating, Perry is now the least popular, dropping 23 points on the margin to 24-56. Romney is actually up seven points from 28-52 to 32-49, and Gingrich up ten, from 22-61 to 29-58. Bachmann stands at 30-52 and Paul 24-52.
It may sound funny, especially to someone who has not lived in the state, but Perry’s comments on barbecue may be a small portion of his deterioration here. Three quarters of the state disagrees with Perry’s contention that road kill tastes better than Eastern North Carolina barbecue, and 40% say the comment makes them less likely to vote for him, with only 8% saying it will make them more likely. That is 32-12 among independents and even 36-6 among Republicans.
“It’s the same old story in North Carolina- Barack Obama’s unpopular but voters don’t like any of the Republican alternatives either and that gives him a decent chance to win the state again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 760 North Carolina voters from September 30th to October 3rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 Rick Perry has stated after eating eastern
North Carolina barbecue that, ‘I’ve had road kill
that tasted better than that.’ Do you agree or
disagree with his statement?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 7%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 75%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q15 Do Rick Perry’s comments about barbecue
make it more or less likely that you’ll vote for
him next year, or do they not make a
difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 8%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 40%
Don’t make a difference ……………………………. 52%
Q16 When it comes to North Carolina barbecue, do
you prefer eastern style or western style, or are
you not sure?
Eastern style…………………………………………… 42%
Western style ………………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q22
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 22%
