Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama beat John McCain in Iowa by nine points in 2008. The state had gone red for President Bush in 2004, but, though always competitive, has otherwise been blue in every election since 1988. Yesterday’s release showed Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney as the leading Republicans in the early caucus race for 2012, and if the election were today, those two are the only ones who would give Obama a bigger run for his money than McCain did two years ago. Obama tops Huckabee by a slender 47-43 margin, and Romney by 47-41. But against Newt Gingrich, he would prevail, 51-38, and by 53-37 over Sarah Palin.
The difference comes with independents, who make up a full quarter of the electorate, with Democrats and Republicans splitting the rest evenly. Obama has a significant party-unity advantage against all four Republicans, taking 86-91% of his own party and holding each of them to 67-79% of the GOP. But while he leads with unaffiliated voters by a 49-34 margin over Gingrich and 49-38 over Palin, he actually trails Huckabee, 41-42, and leads Romney only 40-38. Huckabee and Romney do also hold Obama’s crossover support down. While he takes 13% of Republicans to Gingrich’s 5% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans to Palin’s 6% of Democrats, the split against Huckabee is only 10-7, and 11-9 against Romney.
A majority of the state now approves of the president’s job performance, giving him a 50-43 margin, a reversal of the 43-52 he posted the last time PPP polled the state, in late May 2010. In fact, only four out of the 37 states PPP has surveyed in the last year now give him a higher mark.
Each of the Republicans except Huckabee, however, is under water. Huckabee’s 42-39 favorability grade makes him look golden next to Romney’s 37-42, Gingrich’s 30-49, and Palin’s 34-59.
“In Iowa, we see the same two tiers of electability as in most other states: Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee remaining competitive with President Obama, and Newt Gingrich and especially Sarah Palin headed for blowout defeats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,077 Iowa voters from January 7th to 9th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 47%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
undefined
