Raleigh, N.C. – If there is any good news for Republicans in PPP’s latest look ahead to the 2012 presidential race in North Carolina, it is that Sarah Palin is no longer down by double digits to President Obama. But two years ahead of the next inauguration, the president does now beat all four of the nominal GOP frontrunners for the first time, posting leads of three to nine points in a state he won by less than 1% in 2008 and that previously had not gone blue in 32 years.
In two polls conducted after the 2010 election, Mike Huckabee was the only candidate to still best the president in the Tar Heel State (leading him 46-45 last month), though Mitt Romney tied him in November. But now even Huckabee is behind, 45-49, and Romney holds steady at a 44-47 deficit. Newt Gingrich lags by the same margin as December as well, 44-50. But while Palin had trailed by 14 points last month, she now is down only 41-50, still the worst of the four. This poll contrasts to polls PPP has conducted nationally and in other states, in which Palin has been declining and Huckabee rallying.
The president’s approval rating in this state reflects upward movement across the country in the last month, now at almost majority support, 49%, with 47% disapproving of his job performance. That is almost flipped from the 46-49 he posted in the last poll.
Huckabee has not gotten less popular overall, nor Palin much better liked, but in the horse races, independents have moved from 47-37 in Huckabee’s favor to 51-40 in Obama’s, a 21-point shift on the margin, albeit with a group that makes up less than a fifth of the electorate. The president still leads Romney by five points with them, Gingrich by seven, and Palin by 16. All except Palin, however, now outdo Obama in party unity, and Palin has significantly closed the previously yawning gap. They take more Democrats than he does Republicans (by almost 2:1 margins versus both Huckabee and Romney), and hold him to 80% of Democrats while retaining 79% (Palin) to 86% (Romney) of the GOP.
“As President Obama delivers his State of the Union Address tonight there’s no doubt that his political status is strong,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is probably the best shape he’s been in in North Carolina since he was inaugurated”
PPP surveyed 575 North Carolina voters from January 20th to 23rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 Do you feel that your personal economic
situation has improved, worsened, or stayed
about the same in the last two years?
Improved…………….. 16%
Worsened …………… 47%
Stayed about the
same…………………..37%
Q11 A year from now do you think your personal
economic situation will be better, worse, or
about the same as it is now?
Better …………………. 30%
Worse ………………… 30%
About the same……. 40%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q17
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 19%