Polls

Obama leads all comers, 60% think Palin cannot beat him

| Tom Jensen

Poll Results

1_chart_obamaLead SUMMARY OF RESULTS

Raleigh, N.C. – Despite Sarah Palin’s assertion in a recent interview that she can defeat President Obama in 2012, three-fifths of Americans disagree with her optimism. Even Republicans are barely sure she can pull it off, 48-37. Indeed, she does worst, as usual, of the four current frontrunners and almost as badly as a little-known dark horse in an early look at the national popular vote. Only one of the five does as well as a generic Republican, but Obama would be helped against him if New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg were to make a third-party bid.

American voters just barely prefer, by a 48-47 margin, to re-elect Obama over an unnamed Republican opponent. He does get some support from those who disapprove of his job performance—overall, that rating stands at 47-50, with independents at 46-48, but unaffiliateds pledge to re-elect him by a 49-43 margin. 13% of Democrats plan to cross party lines, to only 8% of Republicans in Obama’s corner.

The only named Republican to match the generic partymate is Mitt Romney, who trails Obama only 46-47. The two tie with independents at 43%, while the president tops the others by two to 16 points. Mike Huckabee is next closest overall, lagging 45-48, followed by Newt Gingrich’s 43-49 deficit. Bringing up the rear are Palin, down 42-51, and Florida’s Senator-elect Marco Rubio, at 37-48. Palin and Rubio are the only two against which Obama earns more Republican support than they do Democratic votes, though each Obama and Gingrich pull 10% crossover support. Twice as many voters have no opinion of Rubio as the next least known, Huckabee and Romney.

If Bloomberg were to make his flirtation with an independent candidacy a reality, his 11% would make Obama’s lead over Romney 44-38. Bloomberg dips into Romney’s support across the board, but particularly among independents, earning 22% to Romney’s 32% and Obama’s 36%. But almost half the Democrats who favored Romney in the two- way now go to Bloomberg. The mayor even nicks Romney’s own GOP support, earning 9% and pulling Romney down to 77% from 87%, with Obama still at 7% from 9%.


PPP surveyed 707 American voters from November 19th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or (919) 880-4888.
Quesitons about the poll? Contact Tom Jensen at (919) 774-6312 



NATIONAL SURVEY RESULTS

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve…………….. 47%
Disapprove…………50%
Not sure ……………. 3%

Q2 Generally speaking if there was a Presidential election today would you vote for Barack Obama or his Republican opponent?

Barack Obama…………………………………………48%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 47% Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michael Bloomberg?

Favorable ……………. 19%
Unfavorable ………..38%
Not sure ………………44% 

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee?

Favorable ……………. 39%
Unfavorable …………40%
Not sure ……………… 22%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 7%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Marco Rubio?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………51%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q11 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q12 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46% Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q13 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………48%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q14 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Independent Michael Bloomberg, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Michael Bloomberg ………………………………….. 11%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q15 Do you think Sarah Palin could defeat Barack Obama if she ran for President in 2012?

Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain……………………………………………45%
Barack Obama…………………………………………50%
Someoneelse/Don’tremember…………………. 5%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17% Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative …………………………………………… 39%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican ……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other …………………………………… 23%

Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.

Hispanic …………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65 ………………………………………….. 16%

 


Full results (including crossover tabs) and press release: PPP_Release_National_1129.pdf


Related Polls