Raleigh, N.C. – Unlike for Debbie Stabenow, there has been little to no bounce for President Obama in Michigan since PPP last polled the state in December, and he is still weaker against his top two potential 2012 opponents than he was in 2008, when he beat John McCain by over 16 points. But he still leads anyone thrown at him now by seven to 20 points, including neighboring Wisconsin’s unpopular governor, Scott Walker.
The closest any Republican can come is Mitt Romney’s 48-41 deficit, followed by Mike Huckabee’s 50-41, Newt Gingrich’s 53-37, Sarah Palin’s 55-35, and Walker’s 52-32. As with Stabenow, Obama’s greatest strength is the 13-point Democratic turnout advantage over Republicans, for Romney and Huckabee do a better job of locking up their bases, and Obama leads by only one with independents over Romney and six over Huckabee.
Three months ago, 50% of Michiganders approved of Obama’s job performance. While the same 45% disapprove now, only 47% approve. That decline has come with both Democrats (from 90-7 to 78-15) and Republicans (13-85 to 4-92), while independents are roughly the same (47-42 now, and 47-44 then).
For as far as Walker has fallen with his own constituents and other Americans, he is still not as unpopular in Michigan as Palin or Gingrich—but nor is he nearly as well known, with 41% having no opinion of him. 22% see Walker favorably, and 37% unfavorably, for a -15 spread. But while almost as many (31%) see Palin favorably as Walker unfavorably, almost three times as many (61%) see her negatively as see him positively. Gingrich also stands with a -30 favorability margin, 27-57. Native son Romney fares best personally, but is still disliked, 37-45. Huckabee does about equally as well, 36-45. In December, Romney was actually seen barely positively, 39-37, but he has fallen a hair with independents and gone from 55% to 66% unfavorable with Democrats. Huckabee has also fallen from 37-40 by going from 58% to 67% negative across the aisle.
“Right now it looks like Michigan will fall somewhere in between Barack Obama’s blowout win of 2008 and the closer victories Democrats had in the state in 2000 and 2004,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama would still win the state if we voted today but not by the kind of margin he did last time.”
PPP surveyed 502 Michigan voters from March 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Scott Walker, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
