Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama leads all Republican challengers in Michigan by double digits, while Republicans are suffering from high unfavorability ratings among voters. Obama leads Mitt Romney by 16 points (54-38), leads Newt Gingrich by 22 points (56-34), leads Rick Santorum by 11 points (50-39) and leads Ron Paul by 18 points (52-34). Last July, we found that Obama led Romney by just 5 points (47-42).
Obama’s job approval rating in Michigan stands at 52% approval and 44% disapproval, an improvement from last July when Obama was at 50/46. 53% of voters say that Barack Obama’s leadership has been “good for Michigan’s economy” while 41% think it’s been bad.
Republican presidential candidates are suffering from horrific favorability ratings in Michigan – less than one-third of voters have favorable opinions of Mitt Romney (29/58), Newt Gingrich (21/66) or Ron Paul (31/54). Only Rick Santorum is liked by more than one-third of voters and disliked by less than half of voters (40/47).
As the Republican nominating contest has gone on, Mitt Romney’s favorability among Michigan independents has tanked – it stands at 32/52 (-20) compared to 48/34 (+14) last July. Gingrich is currently at 15 favorable and 71 unfavorable among independent voters. Ron Paul (40/41) and Rick Santorum (43/44) do much better among independents but still have net negative favorability ratings.
“Michigan is looking less and less like it will be in the swing state column this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama’s numbers in the state are improving, while the Republican field is heading in the other direction. It’s also becoming less clear that Mitt Romney has a big electability advantage- Rick Santorum actually does 5 points better than him here.”
PPP surveyed 560 Michican voters between February 10th and 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.14%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Do you think Barack Obama’s leadership has
been good or bad for Michigan’s economy?
Good……………………………………………………… 53%
Bad ……………………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Looking back, do you support or oppose the
bailout of the auto industry?
Support ………………………………………………….. 52%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Did you have a favorable or unfavorable
opinion of Clint Eastwood’s ad for Chrysler
during the Super Bowl, or are you not familiar
with it?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not familiar with it ……………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q13 Do you think the Chrysler ad was pro-Obama
or not?
It was pro-Obama ……………………………………. 19%
It was not ……………………………………………….. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q20 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 30%
No …………………………………………………………. 70%
