Raleigh, N.C. – Since PPP’s last nationwide poll taken a few weeks after the 2010 election in which President Obama’s party took a self-acknowledged “shellacking,” the president has increased his lead over all four 2012 Republican White House frontrunners. Obama tops Mitt Romney, 48-43 (up from 47-46 in November); Mike Huckabee, 49-44 (48-45); Newt Gingrich, 51-39 (49-43); and Sarah Palin, 55-38 (51-42). Obama also tops monthly wild-card pick Michele Bachmann, who is reportedly considering a bid, 51-33.
The worse the candidate did against the president previously, the greater the decline since. That is particularly true for Palin. No one has lost the national popular vote by anything approaching 17 points since Ronald Reagan’s historic 18-point landslide over Walter Mondale in 1984, when Mondale won only his home state of Minnesota and eternally blue Washington, D.C.
The explanation for Palin’s precipitous decline is that she has gone from taking only 79% of the GOP’s vote, bad enough as it is, to 69% now, with Obama surging from 13% of her party to 20%. Against the others, he earns only 11% (Huckabee) to 16% (Bachmann) of Republicans. Each of the Republicans takes only between 7% and 10% of Obama’s partisans. Gingrich has seen a similar drop as Palin, from 81% to 72% of the GOP. In fact, even Huckabee (from 87% to 80%) and Romney (87% to 78%) have seen GOP support evaporate. Romney, who tied the president with independents in the previous poll, now leads him, 46-43. Against the others, Obama has held his ground, maintaining edges of three (versus Huckabee) to 13 points (Palin) with unaffiliated voters.
Considering Obama’s sizeable leads, it is not surprising that a majority of Americans (51%), including 56% of independents, think the GOP would be better off with a current unknown as their nominee. But Republicans are modestly satisfied with this crop, 47-35.
“Barack Obama’s in his strongest position for reelection in our polling since 2009,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats have really rallied around him since the party’s defeat in November and he continues to benefit from a pretty weak field of potential opponents.”
PPP surveyed 632 American voters from January 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have more faith in the ability of Barack
Obama or John Boehner to lead the country?
Barack Obama …… 48%
John Boehner…….. 35%
Not sure ……………. 17%
Q2 Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or
Congressional Republicans to run the country?
Barack Obama …… 48%
Congressional
Republicans ………. 44%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………. 37%
Unfavorable ………… 38%
Not sure ……………… 25%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q7 Do you think Republicans would be better off
with someone well known like Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney as
their Presidential nominee next year, or would
they be better off with someone newer to the
national scene who is currently not as well
known?
Someone already well known ……………………. 29%
Someone currently not as well known…………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………. 22%
Unfavorable ………… 31%
Not sure ……………… 48%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
