Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama’s lead in the state
declining all the way to two points. He’s at 47% to 45% for Mitt Romney.
In July we found Obama ahead 48-43 and in May it was 51-41.
Iowa makes yet another swing state where voters don’t really care for
either Obama or Romney. Obama’s approval numbers are particularly poor
with only 45% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. The fact
that he has a small lead in the state despite his under water approval
speaks to at least some voters regarding this election as a choice
rather than a referendum. Voters aren’t big on Romney either with 47%
rating him favorably to 48% with an unfavorable opinion.
If wind energy ends up being a defining issue for Iowa voters that
will be good news for Obama’s prospects in the state. 54% of voters
support the tax credit for wind energy production companies to only 26%
who oppose it. Among independents support is 58/25. 68% of voters say
they consider wind energy to be an important issue, including 29% of
voters who say that it’s ‘very important.’ When asked which Presidential
candidate they trust more on wind energy Obama beats Romney 47-37. In a
state that looks like a sheer toss up this could end up being a
defining issue.
A lot of attention has been paid to Republicans regaining the party
registration advantage in Iowa this year. The reason Obama continues to
lead the state anyway is a large lead among unaffiliated voters. On this
particular poll he has a 49-36 edge with them and that finding has been
consistent in our polling- he was up 46-38 with them on our July poll
and 54-34 in May.
It’s hard to quantify but the Paul Ryan pick could be helping Romney at
least a little bit in Iowa. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of
him to 44% with a negative one. Those aren’t earth shattering numbers,
but they’re at least better than Obama and Romney’s. Iowa makes another
swing state where voters express a positive view of Ryan while also
being opposed to the Ryan Plan by a 46/37 margin. People like the man,
but not necessarily his policies.
The gender gap shows up in a major way in Iowa. Romney leads 51-40
with men, but that’s not enough to offset Obama’s 53/40 advantage with
women. There’s also a pretty big generational gap with Obama leading
50-40 among voters under 45, but Romney ahead 48-45 with voters over 45.
“Barack
Obama’s lead in Iowa has steadily declined in our polling over the last three
months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He still has a
narrow advantage, but it’s clear that the state deserves its perceived swing
state status.”
Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,244 likely Iowa voters from August
23-26. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through
automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan’s
proposal for reforming Medicare?
Support ………………………………………………….. 37%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you support or oppose the tax credit for
wind energy production companies?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of wind energy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 Is the wind energy issue very important,
somewhat important, or not that important to
you?
Very important…………………………………………. 29%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 39%
Not that important ……………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
