Raleigh, N.C. – Despite Rick Perry’s dominance in the primary and the conservative leanings of the state overall, South Carolina is another state where Mitt Romney is far-and-away the most electable of the Republican contenders for President. Romney leads President Obama by 15 points, 53-38, and everyone else does worse than John McCain did three years ago. New frontrunner Perry leads by eight, 49-41, just less than McCain’s nine-point victory. Newt Gingrich leads by only one, 45-44, while Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin both tie, 44-44 and 45-45, respectively.
The president’s approval numbers are down from when PPP last polled the Palmetto State in June, from 43-53 to 41-56, his ninth worst of 45 states in which PPP has polled him. Unlike in a lot of states, all but two of his potential opponents (Gingrich and Palin) are seen better. The newcomer, Perry, has a 36-39 favorability rating, Romney a 37-45, Bachmann a 34-43, Palin a 36-56, and Gingrich a 27-53.
Obama has declined six points against Romney, from a 41-50 deficit in June; five points against Palin, from a 48-43 lead; and three points against Gingrich, from a 46-44 lead. The president has slipped with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike in all three matchups. He now leads Bachmann by ten, Gingrich by 11, and Palin by 18 points with independents, but trails Perry by three and Romney by 16.
“Rick Perry is the candidate Republicans like the most but Mitt Romney is the candidate who gives them their best chance of knocking off Barack Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP also polled comedian Stephen Colbert as an independent candidate in his native state. He would not hurt Perry’s chances overall, with Perry still leading Obama 43-36, and Colbert taking 12%—7% of Democrats, 10% of Republicans, and 24% of independents. 23% have a favorable impression of Colbert, and 32% an unfavorable one.
PPP surveyed 587 South Carolina voters from August 25th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stephen Colbert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Rick
Perry, and Stephen Colbert running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 36%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 43%
Stephen Colbert………………………………………. 12%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 49%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 11%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 17%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 16%
