Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final Maine poll of the 2012 election cycle finds Barack Obama leading
the state 55-42. Romney has gained 3 points since PPP’s last look at the
state in mid-September, but he hasn’t been able to get too close because
Obama’s support has remained steady at 55%.
Obama has a 50% approval rating in the state with 44% of voters disapproving
of him. You might expect the contest in Maine to be closer based on those
numbers, but Mitt Romney is not getting any New England home field advantage-
only 40% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 53% with a negative one.
If there is any intrigue with the Presidential race in Maine it’s that the
race is relatively close in the 2nd Congressional District. Obama leads Romney
only 51/46 there with most of his statewide margin coming thanks to a 59/39
lead in the 1st District. It’s a long shot for Romney but his chances of
picking up that electoral vote are better than his prospects in places that
have received more attention this week such as Michigan and Minnesota.
It looks like Angus King will be the next Senator from Maine. He’s at 50% to
36% for Charlie Summers and 12% for Cynthia Dill. King has solidified his
position since our last poll in September when he led Summers just 43-35.
King’s increased his share of the Democratic vote from 58% to 68% since that
survey, he’s ahead of Summers 57/31 with independents, and he’s winning over
21% of the Republican vote.
Maine’s referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a
52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What
we’ve found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that
undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is
something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way-
this is likely to be a pretty close vote.
“Barack Obama and Angus King look like pretty sure bets in Maine,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question is whether it
will become the first state in the country to legalize gay marriage at the
ballot box.”
PPP surveyed 1,633
likely voters on November 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-2.4%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Cynthia Dill, independent Angus King, and
Republican Charlie Summers. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Cynthia Dill……………………………………………… 12%
Angus King …………………………………………….. 50%
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q3 Question 1 would allow the State of Maine to
issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples.
If the election was today, would you vote yes or
no on question 1?
Yes………………………………………………………… 52%
No …………………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 53%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cynthia Dill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Angus King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Summers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Republican
Paul LePage or his Democratic opponent?
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 41%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 65%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the Senate today, would you vote for
Republican Susan Collins or her Democratic
opponent?
Susan Collins………………………………………….. 62%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 38%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q20 Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 53%
2nd………………………………………………………… 47%