Raleigh, N.C. – Colorado was one of several swing and even traditionally red states that President Obama flipped in 2008—and if his re-election bid were decided today, there would be no looking back. He would actually defeat likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney by an even larger margin than he did John McCain four years ago. McCain lost by nine points in the Centennial State, and Romney trails by 13 in PPP’s latest poll.
Obama’s 53-40 lead over Romney here is up 11 points from only a two-point edge when PPP last polled the state only four months ago. And Romney is not even the most competitive Republican contender here. Ron Paul lags the president by only five points (47-42). Romney does manage to best his other two intraparty opponents: Rick Santorum is down by 16 points (54-38), and Newt Gingrich by 18 (55-37).
The story in Colorado is the same as everywhere: the president has seen his popularity rise in the last few months, while the dragging GOP primary contest has sunk their candidates’ personal numbers. Romney’s favorability rating is still the best of the Republicans’ except Paul’s, but he sits at 31% favorable and 60% unfavorable, down from 35-53 in the previous poll. Meanwhile, 50% approve and 47% disapprove of Obama’s job performance, up eight points on the margin from early December (45-50).
Where Obama was seeing 14% of his party cross over for Romney in December, now only 7% do, while 90% stick with him, up from 83%. That 14-point marginal shift, plus a doubling of his lead with independents (from 49-37 to 57-31), is responsible for Obama’s surge. Democrats are a narrow plurality of the electorate, and independents are almost a third of voters, more than in most other states.
“Colorado flipped to the Democratic column in 2008 and it doesn’t look like it’s going back where it came from,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama is looking exceptionally strong there.”
PPP surveyed 542 Colorado voters from April 5th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
