Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP first polled the presidential race in Virginia last November, shortly after President Obama’s self-described “shellacking,” he was at majority approval, and led each of his potential Republican opponents by solid margins. Now despite falling back to 48% approval, with 45% still disapproving, he has expanded his leads against all four Republican frontrunners to between six and 19 points in a state he won by six in 2008.
Though he is less popular than Mike Huckabee personally, Mitt Romney now runs closest to the president, trailing 48-42, versus Huckabee’s 51-43 deficit. Further behind are Newt Gingrich, 51-39, and Sarah Palin, 54-35. In the previous poll, Huckabee and Romney both lagged by five, and the other two by 11 points.
John McCain became the first Republican to lose this state since Barry Goldwater’s landslide 1964 defeat to Lyndon Johnson, but even that does not approach the weakness of next year’s current crop of candidates. They are each losing 5-10% of McCain’s voters to Obama, while taking only 3-4% of his supporters away from him.
Despite independents disapproving of the president’s job performance by six points, Romney is the only candidate who wins this pretty sizeable group, 47-39, while the others trail by two (Huckabee), seven (Gingrich), or 16 (Palin). The president earns the support of at least as many voters as approve of his job performance in each matchup, and none of the Republicans can unify those who disapprove, despite being one of the best-known, most high-profile fields of White House contenders in a generation.
Huckabee is the most “popular” overall, with a 40-41 favorability rating, because he is by far the best liked with his own party, at 71% favorable to the others’ 52% (Romney) or 57% (Gingrich and Palin). Further, he is the only one better liked by GOP voters than disliked by Democrats (63%, versus 73% for Romney, 78% for Gingrich, and 89% for Palin). But Huckabee ultimately does little better job uniting his base against Obama (85%) than do Romney (81%) or Gingrich (80%).
“Virginia is just as strong for Barack Obama right now, if not stronger, than it was in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s very good news for his reelection prospects because it’s hard to imagine him taking Virginia without winning overall.”
PPP surveyed 524 Virginia voters from February 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 29%
Unfavorable……….. 56%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 40%
Unfavorable……….. 41%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 30%
Unfavorable……….. 63%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 33%
Unfavorable……….. 48%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
