Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s first likely voters poll in
Michigan this year finds Barack Obama with a solid lead in the state, 51-44.
That’s down a good bit from our last registered voters poll in July which found
Obama ahead 53-39. That’s a reflection of the fact that the state could be
looking at a very different electorate in 2012 than it had in 2008. We find
that 34% of likely voters on this poll are Republicans compared to 33% who are
Democrats. Exit polls last time showed 41% of voters as Democrats and just 29%
as Republicans.
Nevertheless Obama still has a healthy lead. That reflects the fact that
despite his ties to the state, Michigan voters just don’t embrace Romney. Only
45% have a favorable opinion of him to 49% with an unfavorable one. They don’t
accept Romney as one of their own either- only 34% consider him to be a
Michigander to 57% who do not.
One thing that’s definitely not helping Romney in Michigan is the position
he took on the auto bailout. 53% of voters think Obama has been better for the
automotive industry in the state compared to only 31% for Romney. And this is
something voters care about- 80% of voters say the candidates’ record on the
automotive industry is important to them.
Each candidate has his party base pretty much locked up. Obama is winning
91% of Democratic voters, while Romney is taking 89% of Republican voters.
Obama has the advantage overall thanks to a 54-38 lead with independents.
The Republican convention doesn’t seem to have done Romney a lot of good in
Michigan. Only 30% of voters say it made them more likely to support the GOP
this year while 35% say it actually made them less likely to do so, and an
equal 35% say it didn’t make a difference to them either way. As we found in
every state we polled over the weekend Condoleezza Rice gets great reviews from
Michigan voters with a 64/21 favorability rating, and Ann Romney is seen pretty
positively as well at 51/27.
“Barack Obama probably won’t come close to winning Michigan by the margin he
did in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he’s
still the very clear favorite there.”
PPP surveyed 815
likely Michigan voters from August 31st to September 2nd . The
margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or
authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Did the Republican convention make you more
or less likely to vote for Republicans this year,
or did it not make a difference?
More likely………….. .30%
Less likely ………….. .35%
Didn’t make a
difference …………….35%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the speech Clint Eastwood gave at the
Republican convention?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clint Eastwood in general?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 Who do you think gives better speeches:
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q14 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan’s
proposal for reforming Medicare?
Support ………………………………………………….. 35%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q15 Who do you think has been better for the
automotive industry in Michigan: Barack
Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 Is the candidates’ for President record on the
automotive industry very important, somewhat
important, or not that important to you?
Very important…………………………………………. 48%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 32%
Not that important ……………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q17 Do you consider Mitt Romney to be a
Michigander, or not?
Consider him a Michigander ……………………… 34%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q18 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 52%
He should not………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q22 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
