Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney’s fortunes have really been sinking in PPP’s look ahead to the fall campaign, to the point where he routinely now performs worse against President Obama than the surging Rick Santorum does. Indeed, in Washington state, Romney not only trails Santorum with general election voters, but also Ron Paul.
Romney trails Obama by 15 points (53-38). That is two points better than McCain did in 2008, but one point worse than poll respondents’ self-reported 2008 vote, and a full three points worse than Santorum, who trails by only 12 points (52-40), and two points worse than Paul, who lags by 13 (51-38). Only Gingrich would be a worse nominee at this point; he would get blown out by 20 points (55-35).
The president’s net approval rating has slipped by three points since PPP last polled the state in May 2011, but that was two weeks after Osama Bin Laden was killed, a recent high point in the president’s standing. Now 51% of the state’s voters approve of his job performance, and 45% disapprove, versus 52-43.
But Romney’s personal image has slipped even further as the primary race has dragged on. Last May, he trailed the president by only 11 points (51-40), and 34% saw him favorably to 47% unfavorably, already bad enough. But that is now 27-63, 23 points worse on the margin. Romney has slipped across the board in the last nine months. Even his own party only sees him positively by a 48-40 margin now (versus 51-29). Against the president, Santorum does only marginally better, trailing with independents by six rather than seven points, uniting the GOP only a bit more, and taking a hair more of the Democratic vote.
“Washington was decently close for President in 2000 and 2004,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it looks like the 2012 results will be a lot closer to 2008- an Obama blowout.”
PPP surveyed 1,264 Washington voters from February 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.76%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q16 Area Code
206………………………………………………………… 13%
253………………………………………………………… 12%
360………………………………………………………… 33%
425………………………………………………………… 15%
509………………………………………………………… 27%
