Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s approval rating nationwide has seen a seven-point jump in the last month. For a few months and really for most of the last year and three quarters, the president’s net approval had hovered just above or below zero, most often below. But his +6 (49-43) standing now is his best in a PPP national poll since he got a +8 in October 2009, and a definite improvement over April’s 47-48. Almost all the improvement has come with Republicans, who had been almost universally opposed to the president for his entire term so far. 90% disapproved last month, but only 78% now, with 14% approving, higher than the 12% of Democrats who disapprove.
The president’s leads over his prospective GOP challengers have not moved along with his job performance numbers, but he still does about as well as his seven-point popular vote margin over John McCain in 2008. Obama tops Mitt Romney, 47-42 (47-41 last month); Mike Huckabee, 49-42 (48-43); Newt Gingrich, 52-38 (same); and Sarah Palin, 54-37 (54-36). He also leads two candidates not tested previously: Mitch Daniels, 48-34, and Donald Trump, 53-35. The president is now pulling double-digit GOP support against every Republican, moving from 7% to 10% against Romney.
At 16%, Trump’s support as a third-party candidate is down a bit from when PPP tested him in Iowa (21%) and Nevada (20%) recently. But he fares better than New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who pulled 11% in a national three-way with Obama and Romney last November, and better than any actual independent candidate has gotten in an election since Ross Perot in 1992. And the net effect is still the same: Trump would pull enough Republican and independent votes (20% and 24%, respectively) to hand Obama the election by a wide 46-33 margin over Romney.
“Obama’s approval numbers have improved,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But his prospects for reelection really haven’t. The killing of Osama bin Laden doesn’t look like it will have a big long term impact.”
PPP surveyed 814 American voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitch Daniels?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Donald Trump running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 33%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q14 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Mitch Daniels, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q15 Do you think Osama bin Laden is dead or still
alive?
Dead ……………………………………………………… 85%
Still alive…………………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 10%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
