Raleigh, N.C. – The likely electorate in PPP’s latest Ohio poll, the one which planned to overturn John Kasich’s Senate Bill 5 yesterday, was slightly older, whiter, and less Democratic than the respondents to PPP’s last poll of the state three weeks ago. But if that same pro-union but not so liberal electorate turns out next fall, President Obama will still win this crucial swing state by a larger margin than he did in 2008, even against his toughest opponent, Mitt Romney, who tied the president just three weeks ago here.
Obama leads Romney, 50-41, four points larger than his 52-47 win over John McCain three years ago, and nine points larger than the 46-46 tie found in mid-October. The president tops the other Republican aspirants by double-digit margins, and has increased his leads by two to eight points over them. He leads Herman Cain by 11 (50-39), up from only three in the previous poll; Newt Gingrich by 13 (51-38), up from 11; Ron Paul by 14 (50-36), up from eight; Michele Bachmann also by 14 (51-37), up from nine; and Rick Perry by 17 (53-36), up from nine.
The reason for the president’s improvement has to do with enthusiasm. The Democrats voting in this fall’s election are in lock-step behind him, and the Republicans, 30% of whom said they would vote to overturn SB5, are more favorable to him than those in the general registered electorate. While Romney pulled 12% of Democrats and ceded only 4% of Republicans just three weeks ago, the case now is almost the reverse, with Obama winning 10% of the GOP and losing only 4% of his own party. The Republicans next fall will not likely be so open to voting for him, but the president has to hope his own party remains as motivated to oppose the GOP nominee as they are to oppose Kasich now.
“The electorate next year probably won’t be as friendly to Democrats as the one that showed up in Ohio yesterday,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But after a tough 2010 there it looks like the party is reenergized and ready to come back out for Barack Obama in 2012.”
PPP surveyed 1,022 likely Ohio voters from November 4th to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
