Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Barack
Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points in the state, 51-44. Obama’s advantage
has increased by 5 points since PPP’s last poll of the state in late August
when he led just 47-45.
The biggest change in the last month has been significant deterioration in
Mitt Romney’s image. His favorability has dropped a net 14 points from -1 at
47/48 to -15 at 40/55. His 47% comments last week appear to be hurting him more
in Iowa than most places. 42% of voters in the state say they made them less
likely to vote for him, compared to only 24% who consider them a
positive. Overall 51% of voters consider his comments to have been inappropriate
to 42% who thought they were ok.
Obama’s further consolidated his party base over the last month and now
leads 91-7 with Democrats, compared to 87-10 in August. We’re also seeing a
more Democratic likely electorate this time around. That’s a function of the
fact that 62% of Democrats say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote this fall
compared to only 55% of Republicans who say the same. For most of the cycle
there’s been a perceived pro-Republican enthusiasm gap but now it seems like
that’s flipped with Democrats saying they’re more excited about the election.
PPP’s conducted polls in three swing states- Iowa, Florida, and Colorado-
both before the Democratic convention and after Romney’s 47% comments. Obama’s
standing has improved by 3 points each in Florida and Colorado, and 5 points in
Iowa.
In addition to Romney’s decline Obama is also becoming at least a little bit
stronger in Iowa in his own right. His approval is on narrowly positive ground
at 49/48, compared to 45/50 a month ago. Obama has the edge over Romney on both
who voters trust more on the economy (49/47) and on foreign policy (50/44).
“Barack Obama is starting to pull away in Iowa,” said Dean Debnam, President
of Public Policy Polling. “Voters there just really don’t like Mitt Romney. It
would be more competitive if the Republicans had a half decent candidate.”
PPP surveyed 754
likely Iowa voters from September 24th to 26th. The margin of error
for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 52%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 27%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 20%
Q7 Are you familiar with comments Mitt Romney
has made about the ‘47%’, or not?
Familiar ………………………………………………….. 86%
Not familiar……………………………………………… 14%
Q8 Mitt Romney recently said, “There are 47
percent of the people who will vote for the
president no matter what. All right? There are
47 percent who are with him, who are
dependent upon government, who believe that
they are victims, who believe the government
has a responsibility to care for them, who
believe that they are entitled to health care, to
food, to housing, to you-name-it, that that’s an
entitlement. And the government should give it
to them. And they will vote for this president no
matter what…. These are people who pay no
income tax.” Do you think Romney’s comments
were appropriate or inappropriate?
Appropriate …………………………………………….. 42%
Inappropriate…………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Do these comments make you more or less
likely to vote for Mitt Romney, or do they not
make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 24%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 42%
No difference ………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q10 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 51%
He should not………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
