SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Raleigh, N.C. – Two years after he became the first Democrat to win the Tar Heel State since Jimmy Carter in 1976, Barack Obama remains in solid shape to win the state again. He defeated John McCain by about half a point, and remains statistically tied with the four main contenders vying to face off against him in PPP’s first look at the 2012 landscape in North Carolina, three weeks after his party’s crushing losses at the polls.
Even in a relatively conservative state where Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich do best in the early GOP primary matchup, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, as most everywhere else, are currently President Obama’s strongest challengers. Obama tops Palin, 48-43, Gingrich, 46-45, ties with Romney at 44%, and loses to Huckabee, 44-48. These results come among an electorate that voted for McCain by four points—less Republican- friendly than 2010 but still more so than 2008.
A release last week showed the president leading in northern neighbor Virginia, a state he took for his party for the first time since 1964, by at least five points. Unlike in that state, however, the president loses with independents in each matchup, and bleeds significantly more of his own party’s voters than the Republicans do. His closest margin with unaffiliateds is a 42-46 deficit against Palin, but he loses 37-50 to Romney.
The president still does well because Democrats make up 49% of the electorate, a 14- point advantage over the GOP. But that edge is effectively erased by Democratic defections. He gets 73-78% of his party, to the Republicans’ 76-87% of theirs, because he is losing 17-21% of Democrats and only pulling 5-9% of the GOP.
Palin is personally the least popular with Democrats and independents, and Huckabee the most popular across the board. Obama is still relatively unpopular, with a 45-51 job approval rating.
“It has to be encouraging for President Obama that so soon after some wrote his political obituary, he is already looking just as strong in North Carolina and Virginia as he did in 2008. The remarkable thing is he is doing this well while still losing independents, unlike in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 517 North Carolina voters from November 19th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or (919) 880-4888.
Quesitons about the poll? Contact Tom Jensen at (919) 774-6312
NORTH CAROLINA SURVEY RESULTS
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama…………………………………………46%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama…………………………………………44%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama…………………………………………48%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama…………………………………………44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Senator Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Senator Kay Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove …………………………………………….. 44%
Not Sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain……………………………………………49%
Barack Obama…………………………………………45%
Someone else/Don’t remember…………………. 6%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative …………………………………………… 42%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican ……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other …………………………………… 17%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65 ………………………………………….. 20%
Q18
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 23%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 20%
Full results (including crossover tabs) and press release: PPP_Release_NC_1123.pdf
