Raleigh, N.C. – Ohio has been the quintessential battleground for much of recent U.S. presidential election history, and in PPP’s latest poll of the Buckeye State, President Obama leads all but one of his potential Republican opponents by single-digit margins.
Obama defeated John McCain in the state by almost five points, and poll respondents report having voted for him by only three. In that sense, only Mitt Romney and perhaps Rick Perry outperform the 2008 nominee at the present moment. Obama leads Romney by only two points, 45-43, a little bit of closure since PPP last polled the race in May, when Obama led, 46-42. The newest entrant, Perry, is down, 45-41. Michele Bachmann trails, 48-41; Herman Cain, 47-39; and Palin, 51-38, down from 50-40 in May.
Though Obama’s approval rating has slipped from 46% approving and 49% disapproving to 44-52, all the Republicans are still less liked than he is. The freshest face, Perry, is for the time being, the most popular. But still only 28% have a favorable view of him, to 37% who have an unfavorable one. That compares to Cain’s 22-35, Bachmann’s and Romney’s 30-49, and Palin’s 34-59. Romney has eroded, having been at 32-43 in May.
Most of the movement in Obama’s approval marks and the horseraces is because of Republicans hardening against him. Independents have soured a little in their assessment of the president’s job performance, but have moved a little toward the president in their vote preference. And though Romney and Perry take over 10% of Democrats to Obama’s 4% of the GOP, Obama remains narrowly on top because Democrats are twice as numerous as independents.
“Barack Obama’s saving grace is the weakness of the Republican field- that’s how he can be ahead in Ohio despite being so unpopular,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public of Policy Polling. “But his leads are tenuous and could vanish quickly once the GOP starts to united around a candidate.”
PPP surveyed 792 Ohio voters from August 11th to 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
