Raleigh, N.C. – Despite the president becoming a little less popular and Mitt Romney a little more so since PPP last gauged public opinion in the Show-Me State four months ago, the two are just as knotted as they were then. In a few polls last year, the state had seemed to be slipping away from the president, but is now reverting to its traditional razor’s-edge outcome.
Obama leads Romney 45-44, little change from a 45-all tie in January. That comes despite Obama’s approval margin slipping from 45-50 to 44-52, and Romney’s personal favorability improving considerably from 30-54 to 38-50 in the same time frame.
Romney remains still more disliked than the president, even as he consolidates his base. He has moved from barely breaking even with Republicans at 44-40 to a still somewhat weak 71-18 margin now that he has essentially wrapped up the nomination. That compares poorly to Obama’s 83-13 with his own party.
It is often said that the top of the ticket matters more to voters than the running mates. That is only proven by the disparate results PPP found for three Missouri figures who could be added to Romney’s ticket. The third least popular senator on which PPP has polled this year, freshman Roy Blunt (32% approve, 46% disapprove), moves the race two points in Obama’s favor (46-43). On the flip side, the extraordinarily esteemed ex-senator John Danforth, who has a 46-19 favorability spread, can only help Romney stay at a slim deficit (44-43). And the somewhat popular former senator John Ashcroft (43-36) would cause a 47-43 edge for the Obama-Biden ticket.
“Missouri remains surprisingly competitive,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama’s unpopular there but this was one of Mitt Romney’s weakest states during the primary season and it still hasn’t warmed up to him. This will not be part of the path to 270 for Obama but if he stays close there it could help Claire McCaskill.”
PPP surveyed 602 Missouri voters from May 24th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Roy
Blunt’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .32%
Disapprove…………. .46%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Roy Blunt for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 46%
Romney-Blunt …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Ashcroft?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and John Ashcroft for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Ashcroft …………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Danforth?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and John Danforth for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 44%
Romney-Danforth ……………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
