Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama rode such a wave into office that he nearly won in Montana, with John McCain edging him by only two points. But in PPP’s latest poll of the state, it looks like Obama’s team can write Montana off its expanded list of targets for 2012. The only of five Republicans tested who does as poorly as McCain is the plummeting Herman Cain.
But neither will Obama likely do as badly as John Kerry or Al Gore, who lost the state by respective 21- and 25-point margins. Obama trails his strongest opponent, Mitt Romney, by 10 points (50-40), and lags Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich each by eight (48-40 and 50-42), Rick Perry by three (46-43), and Cain by two (45-43). Romney is up two points and Cain down three since PPP last polled the race in June. The others were not tested then, but Gingrich is up six points from the second most recent poll a year ago.
The president’s approval rating has slid six points from 43% approving and 54% disapproving to 39-56 in the last five months. As is the case most places, his own party approves pretty strongly, and Republicans disapprove even more strongly. The difference is that independents disapprove by 21 points, and they make up a large 35% of the electorate, equal to Republicans’ share of voters.
But except Gingrich at the moment, voters do not like any of these Republicans any better, so when it comes to the head-to-head match-ups, Obama’s largest loss margin with independents is 15 points to Paul. He also trails Romney by 11 and Gingrich by eight. But he actually leads Perry by two and trails Cain by only one. Obama also loses slightly more of his own party (7-10%) than he picks up across the aisle (4-6%).
“Barack Obama came surprisingly close to winning Montana in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it doesn’t look like he’ll be able to make it competitive again this time.”
PPP surveyed 1,625 Montana voters from November 28th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
