Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama is still in decent shape to take Ohio’s newly thinned slate of electors next year, if a little weaker than when PPP last polled the crucial swing state in mid-March. Then, he led his closest competitor, Mitt Romney, 46-40. Romney has closed the gap a little, to 46-42, as have Newt Gingrich (from 50-38 to 49-40) and even Sarah Palin (from 52-36 to 50-40). In a hypothetical matchup with Sen. Rob Portman, Obama would prevail, 48-38.
There is good news for the president, though, in that even his close lead over Romney is essentially the same as his five-point victory over John McCain in 2008. That result comes even in an electorate that reports having voted for him by only one point over McCain—indicating that turnout from Obama’s base is still lagging, as it did last fall, when Portman won election by a whopping 18 points.
Unlike in most places PPP has polled more than once in the last few months, Obama’s approval rating has actually declined in Ohio, from a narrowly positive 47-46 approval-disapproval margin in March to 46-49 now. Unusually, the president has eroded support from with his own party, with only 78% approving and 19% disapproving (versus 84-11 in March), and with independents (from 39-49 to 37-55).
People have moved strongly against Portman as they have found out more about him. In March, 25% approved and 22% disapproved, with 53% still unsure of their feelings about their new senator. He stands now at 28-33.
“These Ohio numbers epitomize Barack Obama’s status right now- he’s not terribly popular but the Republican field is even more unpopular and because of that he’d be in a solid shape for reelection if we had to vote today,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If a GOP candidate really captures the attention of the voters Obama will be in trouble but that is far from inevitable.”
PPP surveyed 565 Ohio voters from May 19th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 59%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 34%
Unfavorable……….. 58%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 43%
Not sure ……………. 25%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rob
Portman’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 28%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rob
Portman, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rob Portman…………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
