Raleigh, N.C. – West Virginia is not even remotely on the Obama campaign’s radar if it were in a position to expand the map of swing states. Despite its blue-collar Democratic history, the state has not gone for a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996, and has voted for the Republican by identical 13-point margins in both of the last two elections. But Obama can at least take heart that he has not lost much ground here, unlike in some states.
In PPP’s latest poll of the Mountain State, the president trails Mitt Romney, 49-37; Rick Perry, 49-38; Michele Bachmann, 48-39; Newt Gingrich, 45-40; and Sarah Palin, 45-42. Though all the GOP contenders underperform McCain by raw numbers, poll respondents report having voted for McCain by only nine points. Compared to that likely electorate for this fall’s gubernatorial election, only Gingrich and Palin do worse than the 2008 nominee.
The state’s conservative Democrats, who make a 55% majority of the electorate, only approve of Obama’s job performance by a 49-43 margin, a major part of his overall 32-62 mark.
But Obama far exceeds his -30 approval margin in the horse races because most of those Democrats would still prefer him to the GOP alternatives. He loses “only” 27% of his party to Perry, 25% to Romney and Bachmann, and 23% to Gingrich and Palin. The president also gets a little more support from independents than approval. They give him a -44 approval grade, but vote for the Republicans by only 22 (Perry) to 32 points (Romney). Republicans are pretty unanimously against him though.
“Even with its strong Democratic ancestry it’s hard to imagine West Virginia going blue in a Presidential election again anytime soon,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The national Democratic Party just isn’t in tune with WV Democrats.”
PPP surveyed 708 likely West Virginia voters from September 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 49%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 11%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
